Will the addition of new Redmond stations contribute to the occupation of previously unoccupied Eastside light rail vehicles?
Hop aboard an Eastside light rail train in the mornings, and you'll have plenty of elbow room. The two-car trains designed to accommodate 300 commuters are only carrying a few dozen passengers. In fact, only 3,240 daily passengers used the 6-mile starter line in March.
For several months, ridership met or surpassed modest estimates of 4,000 to 5,700 daily boardings, reaching a high of 6,668 in June before declining in December. Its grand opening day, April 27, 2024, saw a rush of 35,000 rides between South Bellevue and Redmond Technology stations.
So far, the novelty of Eastside light rail has outpaced its practicality.
Sound Transit anticipates a significant boost beginning this weekend, as the $1.2 billion extension to Marymoor Village and Downtown Redmond stations officially opens. Officials are too cautious to make specific predictions, but there are reasons for optimism since Redmond is home to a large number of apartment dwellers, who may opt for public transit to Redmond Technology Station (Microsoft headquarters) in just six minutes or downtown Bellevue in 17 minutes.
During project design, the agency forecasted 5,900 passenger boardings a day in those two stations, but that number is only expected to hold once travelers can ride from Redmond all the way into Seattle, during the forthcoming I-90 segment, slated to open this winter. This is slightly less than what the ST3 ballot measure of 2016 projected, expecting 7,000 to 9,000 boardings.
Transit ridership projections are notoriously unreliable.
Historically, mass transit projects, including Sound Transit, have fallen short of the ambitious targets they promote while seeking federal grants and public tax votes. However, federal studies suggest that they are improving. Sound Transit has taken notice, adjusting their projections based on real-world experiences and the general downturn in transit use during the pandemic, while also providing wide ranges to minimize errors. Although Seattle-area transit use increased 12% overall last year, a promising sign.
Despite the winter lull that isn't well understood, the sluggish Eastside ridership can primarily be attributed to construction delays at I-90, keeping the line rather local for now. Bellevue, with its towering skyline, and 35% population growth since 2008, has a population of 231,000 residents. Officials believe the Eastside has the economic clout to patronize the light rail. Recently, the message has been: "don't pass judgement until that much-delayed I-90 light rail connection to Seattle opens, offering Eastsiders quick rides to downtown, the University of Washington, or a Seahawks game."
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Claudia Balducci, a transit board member from Bellevue who sits on the Metropolitan King County Council, said, "That's when you will see it really become useful."
Low Expectations
Back in the mid-2010s, Sound Transit stated that the 2 Line from Redmond Technology Station to Seattle would carry 50,000 daily riders, a figure the Federal Transit Administration cited while allocating $1.33 billion toward the project's $3.7 billion budget. These figures are now outdated.
Newridership projections for the entire 59-mile network, which includes spokes from Seattle to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way come spring 2023, estimate a range of 145,000 to 189,000 daily boardings by late 2026. This is equivalent to three full sports stadiums.
Not too shabby but a far cry from the 280,000 daily riders Sound Transit projected it would carry across slightly less territory in 2008, while rallying voters to pass the ST2 sales tax proposition. Charles Prestrud, analyst for the free-market Washington Policy Center think tank, emphasizes that light rail served 6 million more trips in 2024 than in 2017, but overall there were still 34 million fewer transit rides at Sound Transit, King County Metro, and Community Transit, a concerning sign of weak long-term demand, and bus riders being compelled by route changes to take a train.
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So, what does success look like? One benchmark is the number of long-term transit customers created for the steep taxpayer investments. Eric Goldwyn, research partner in New York University's Transit Costs Project, posits, "I'd basically say anything in the $50,000 to $75,000 range per rider would be very good in the U.S." Goldwyn recently sat on a paid expert-review panel advising Sound Transit's board. "Now, inflation is a thing so we can revise up a bit, but that $100,000-per-rider zone where projects are these days is alarming."
Sound Transit's Eastside usage would barely meet this standard, costing close to $100,000 per permanent customer if the 17-mile megaproject meets its original 50,000-passenger aspiration that Sound Transit promoted in the 2008 campaign, but no longer guarantees.
By NYU's standard, last year's $3.1 billion Northgate-Lynnwood extension will excel if it meets the original promise of 47,000 to 55,000 daily riders, roughly $60,000 per permanent user. Since its launch, the extension has boosted the 1 Line through Seattle and SeaTac to about 95,000 daily boardings, providing ample room for future growth, particularly during I-5's multi-year deck resurfacing, which begins in July 2025.
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In some cases, Seattle's rail corridor has lived up to expectations. The downtown-airport line opened in 2009 initially had such low ridership that operators ran tiny one-car trains during the night for a while. An FTA study flagged light rail's unusually low ridership, only 62% of the predicted 37,800 daily trips in 2011. However, the masses finally arrived in 2015, and Link then hit its milestone.
Seattle's own benchmark for good value is the 2016 extension from Westlake to Capitol Hill and University of Washington stations, a swift 8-minute ride, proving that destinations near a young adult population are the best cure. The $1.7 billion project added 33,900 riders, falling short of the 48,100 daily targets endorsed by the FTA but still considered a success.
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John Marchione, retired mayor of Redmond, once believed that the Eastside is busy enough to sustain its own line, even before news broke about defective track ties delaying the connection over Lake Washington. He remains confident enough to predict 50,000 daily riders between Redmond, Bellevue, and Seattle.
South Bellevue Station's 1,500-stall parking garage, which is currently lightly used, will attract Seattle-bound sports fans and maybe commuters next year, alongside the 1,400-stall garage at Marymoor Village. In total, the eight-station local line will expand to twelve stations, including 2026 stops at Mercer Island and Judkins Park.
Marchione said, "The base assumptions on the ground have changed, with people working from home, and the location of jobs. I think it'll get to that number, just not as quickly as they first forecasted."
Sound Transit might attract a new clientele. With a station near the 40-acre off-leash area at Marymoor, board members are discussing whether to allow pets on the trains.
- The Eastside light rail's novelty seems to have outpaced its practicality so far, carrying only a few dozen passengers compared to the designed capacity of 300.
- Sound Transit anticipates a significant boost in ridership this weekend with the opening of the extension to Marymoor Village and Downtown Redmond stations.
- Redmond, home to a large number of apartment dwellers, may opt for public transit to Redmond Technology Station (Microsoft headquarters) or downtown Bellevue, offering quick rides in just six or 17 minutes respectively.
- During project design, Sound Transit forecasted 5,900 passenger boardings a day in the two stations, but that number is only expected to hold once travelers can ride from Redmond all the way into Seattle.
- Transit ridership projections are notoriously unreliable, and federal studies suggest they are improving, with agencies like Sound Transit adjusting their projections based on real-world experiences.
- Bellevue, with a population of 231,000 residents, has a population that officials believe has the economic clout to patronize the light rail, with the message being: "don't pass judgement until the I-90 light rail connection to Seattle opens."
- The Northgate-Lynnwood extension, which opened last year, will excel if it meets the original promise of 47,000 to 55,000 daily riders, providing ample room for future growth.
- John Marchione, retired mayor of Redmond, predicts 50,000 daily riders between Redmond, Bellevue, and Seattle for the expanded light rail line.
- Sound Transit might attract a new clientele, with board members discussing whether to allow pets on the trains, especially near the 40-acre off-leash area at Marymoor.
