Vinyl music persists beyond celebrities, CDs' durability, and business prospects in retail, as stated by Kim Bayley of ERA.
The vinyl market, despite a 2.8% year-on-year fall in Q2, remains on an upward trajectory, with projections of steady growth through 2030 and beyond. This resilience is evident in the half-year vinyl sales of £91.7m, surpassing the sales of an entire 12-month period as recently as 2018.
The absence of a Taylor Swift album in 2025 was a contributing factor to the fall in vinyl sales. However, the Taylor Swift phenomenon last year was a one-off, and market growth has still been strong. In fact, her upcoming album is set for release in October.
The biggest-selling vinyl album of the year so far is Sam Fender's "People Watching," but it only represents 0.016% of the vinyl market over the first six months. This underscores the diversity of the vinyl market, with various artists and albums contributing to its growth.
Despite the growth, there are still many towns where vinyl is not available. However, the decision of retailers like TG Jones, rebranded from WH Smith, to embrace vinyl is seen as driving the format further into the mainstream. TG Jones is planning to expand its vinyl offering following its return to stores last year.
Record Store Day sales hit an all-time high, demonstrating the continued engagement and sales spikes driven by events like these and special collector editions. The impact of major releases, such as Taylor Swift's albums, has been significant in recent years, although growth was somewhat tempered in early 2025 due to fewer blockbuster releases.
The vinyl revival is powered by nostalgia, the warm analog sound quality vinyl offers, and increased interest among younger consumers seeking tactile and collectible music experiences. Limited-run colored vinyl, box sets, and custom packaging are increasingly popular. Independent record stores remain key distribution hubs.
However, the vinyl market faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, lingering from the COVID-19 pandemic, which have caused production delays and increased pricing. Meanwhile, growth is somewhat restrained by the convenience and dominance of digital streaming.
Looking ahead, the vinyl market looks poised for continued expansion, driven by collectible appeal, premium releases, and a passionate consumer base. The market is forecast to reach 55–60 million units and $3.8–$4.2 billion in revenue by 2030, and 65–70 million units and $5.5–$6.2 billion by 2035.
Retailers have expressed concerns about the potential price sensitivity of music fans regarding vinyl records. To address this, consolidating the Mercury Prize and National Album Day in the same week is hoped to be a focus point for both streaming and physical sales. The Mercury Prize and National Album Day, held in the same week, are seen as complementary in terms of audience and intent.
In summary, the vinyl market remains strong and growing, despite some slowing growth rates. The market is driven by a passionate consumer base, collectible appeal, and premium releases, with projections of substantial unit and revenue growth through the 2030s.
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