U.S. Tariffs Affect Italy: Florence, Milan, and Trieste Suffer Most
In the first quarter of 2025, several Italian provinces are expected to face significant economic challenges due to U.S. tariffs, particularly those in Tuscany. According to the latest quarterly provincial data from ISTAT, Tuscany alone is estimated to risk 15,000 to 18,000 jobs due to tariffs on sectors such as wine, leather goods, design manufacturing, and certified agri-food.
Tuscany, which accounts for about 16% of Italy's exports to the U.S., ranks third after Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna. The direct loss for Italy in sectors subject to tariffs could reach up to 9 billion euros, with a total impact including indirect effects estimated between 18 and 22 billion euros over the 2025-26 period.
At the national level, Italy exports over 63 billion euros to the U.S., and the tariff-related losses could affect 115,000 to 145,000 jobs, with 75% of impacts concentrated in northern and central Italy, including provinces in Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, as well as Bologna, Florence, Modena, Milan, Vicenza, Frosinone, Bergamo, Rome, and L'Aquila.
The proposed 30% U.S. tariffs could slash Italian exports by around 38 billion euros by 2027, representing about 58% of exports to the U.S. and 6% of total Italian exports. While the exact percentage loss by individual provinces beyond Tuscany is not detailed, other leading export regions like Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna are also heavily impacted.
In Enna, U.S. exports accounted for 7.2% of total exports in the first quarter of 2025, with potential losses estimated at just over 207,000 euros with tariffs at 30%. On the other hand, Trieste, which accounts for 42% of its total exports to the U.S., could face a potential loss of 366 million euros with tariffs at 30%. However, if tariffs were reduced to 15%, the potential loss for Trieste would have been halved, and with tariffs at 10%, it would have been a third.
The negative impact in Caltanissetta, Crotone, Oristano, Cosenza, and Viterbo was below one million euros. Despite these provinces experiencing less direct impact, the broader tariff impact includes a downturn in export volumes, job losses, and increases in consumer prices for affected goods, which may indirectly affect these provinces as well.
The potential losses for Tuscany in the first quarter of 2025 align with the staged implementation of tariffs starting early 2025, with visible domestic price increases expected as early as Q1 2026. The broad tariff impact includes a downturn in export volumes, job losses, and increases in consumer prices for affected goods.
In summary, Tuscany is the Italian province with the highest detailed reported risk, facing up to 18,000 jobs at risk and billions of euros in potential export losses in the 2025-26 period due to U.S. tariffs, with other northern and central provinces also substantially affected at the national scale. The U.S. tariffs are expected to have the most significant impact on the provinces of Florence, Milan, Trieste, Modena, Rome, L'Aquila, Bologna, Vicenza, Frosinone, and Bergamo.
The finance sector in Tuscany may be heavily impacted due to the potential loss of jobs estimated at 18,000, which could lead to significant financial troubles for the businesses based in the province. At the national level, the business sectors in Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Bologna, Florence, Modena, Milan, Vicenza, Frosinone, Bergamo, Rome, and L'Aquila are all projected to face tariff-related financial burdens, potentially affecting their financial stability over the 2025-26 period.
