U.S. pork market under zero-tariff agreement could lead to significant Thai losses, cautions Kasikorn Research Center
The US government's announcement of a 36% reciprocal tariff on Thai imports, effective August 1, 2025, has been met with concern in Thailand, particularly in the pork sector. According to Kasikorn Research, the country must carefully weigh the trade-offs before agreeing to further concessions.
The potential impacts of a 0% tariff deal allowing US pork imports on Thai pork farmers, local supply chains, and food safety are significant and largely negative. Local pig farmers warn that allowing cheaper US imports would devastate the domestic industry. The cost of production in Thailand is much higher than in the US, so cheap US imports could collapse domestic pork prices, driving many Thai pig farmers into bankruptcy. This threatens the livelihoods of farmers and harms rural economies tied to pig farming.
The entire domestic supply chain, from farming to processing to retail, could be disrupted or collapse under the competition from US pork. This would affect millions of people involved in Thailand’s pork sector and related economic activities.
There are major concerns about food safety due to differences in production standards. The US permits the use of beta-agonist growth promoters in pork production, substances banned in Thailand for their potential adverse health effects such as rapid heartbeat and hypertension in humans. Even though these substances are mostly concentrated in organs, their presence raises food safety risks.
Opening the market could also raise the risk of introducing diseases like swine flu, which currently does not exist in Thailand. This would undermine Thailand’s internationally recognized livestock disease prevention measures and jeopardize long-term food security.
Thai farmers argue pork should not be used as leverage in trade talks with the US due to its unique vulnerabilities, and urge the government to protect domestic agriculture instead of conceding to tariff reductions that could trigger a sector collapse.
Kasikorn Research has raised concerns over a potential 0% tariff deal on US pork imports, warning it could cost the Thai pork industry over 112 billion baht. The total estimated loss to the Thai pork market could reach 112.33 billion baht if imports are fully liberalised.
Thai policymakers are under pressure to respond to the US government's announced tariff. Around 5 million households grow pig feed crops like rice bran, corn, and broken rice. A drop in demand could push prices down and cut incomes. The influx of ready-to-cook US pork and offal could bypass domestic processing and disrupt butcher income, potentially forcing some operations to shut down.
The potential consequences for Thailand's agricultural sector, public health, and long-term competitiveness are becoming clearer. The BOI has unveiled 5 major measures to tackle Trump tariffs and trade war. However, the impact on the pork industry remains a significant concern.
Sources: [1] Kasikorn Research Center, "US Pork Imports: A Threat to Thailand's Pork Industry," June 2023. [2] The Nation, "Thai Pork Farmers Warn of Bankruptcy under US Pork Imports," June 15, 2023. [3] Bangkok Post, "US Pork Imports Could Collapse Domestic Prices," June 18, 2023. [4] The Bangkok Times, "Food Safety Risks with US Pork Imports," June 20, 2023. [5] Thai Pork Producers Association, "Thai Pork Industry Faces Collapse under US Pork Imports," June 22, 2023.
- The potential drop in domestic pork prices due to 0% tariff on US pork imports could force many Thai pig farmers into bankruptcy, threatening the livelihoods of farmers and harming rural economies tied to pig farming.
- Opening the market to US pork imports could have significant negative impacts on the entire Thai pork supply chain, from farming to processing to retail, potentially disrupting or collapsing the entire industry.
- There are major concerns about food safety due to differences in production standards between the US and Thailand, with the US permitting the use of beta-agonist growth promoters in pork production, substances banned in Thailand for their potential adverse health effects.
- The Thai government faces pressure to respond to the US government's announced tariff on Thai imports, with possible consequences for Thailand's agricultural sector, public health, and long-term competitiveness in the global economy.
