Trucking business volume has seen a fourth consecutive month of decreases, according to the latest For-Hire Trucking Index report.
In the world of for-hire trucking, the industry is facing a challenging period, marking its 13th consecutive quarter of a downturn. This prolonged slump can be attributed to a combination of factors, including excess capacity, rising operational costs, and weakening freight demand influenced by trade policy uncertainty and tariffs.
The latest figures from ACT Research's For-Hire Trucking Index reveal a fourth consecutive month of declining volumes in June. The Capacity Index, despite a slight increase, continues to show an overall capacity decline, with a reading of 46.8. This indicates that the industry's capacity continues to contract, making it harder for companies to meet demand.
The financial health of publicly traded TL carriers remains near its lowest levels since 2009, with profit margins reflecting the strain. The Pricing and Productivity Indices both showed decreases in June, with the Pricing Index falling to 44.2 and the Productivity Index dropping substantially by 16.3 points to 47.6. These figures suggest that freight rates are not keeping pace with the industry's costs, further exacerbating the financial pressures faced by companies.
One of the primary reasons for the industry's struggles is the tightening driver availability. The Driver Availability Index tightened to 47.9 from 50.9 in June, marking the first deterioration in driver supply in 38 months. The aging workforce, low pay, long hours, regulatory burdens, and job instability have made it difficult to attract new drivers, creating a significant labor gap. The industry needs upwards of 160,000 new drivers by 2030 to address this issue.
Tariff impacts are expected to weigh on volumes through 2025. The tariff-related effects, which have driven up goods prices and complicated international freight flows, have eroded consumer affordability and weighed on real income, undermining freight demand recovery. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs is also expected to continue tightening the driver market in the near term.
However, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Fleet purchase intentions rose 15.6% month over month in June, with 43% of respondents planning equipment purchases in the next three months. Despite this increase, fleet purchase intentions remain significantly below the 54% long-term average as fleets deal with financial constraints and rising equipment costs.
Despite the challenges, some signs of slow recovery and improved industry sentiment have emerged, with cautious optimism for gradual market improvement heading into 2026. The downturn in volumes is expected to improve in July and August following a tariff reprieve, but there will be paybacks due to pull-forwards in freight demand in the first half of the year.
In conclusion, the for-hire trucking industry's struggles can be traced back to a convergence of economic, labor, and policy factors, including tariff-driven cost pressures and a constrained driver labor pool. These factors continue to shape the industry's pace and stability of recovery, making it a critical time for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders to work together to address these challenges and pave the way for a more sustainable and resilient industry.
Tariff impacts are expected to negatively affect the industry's financial health, as well as freight demand recovery, through 2025. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs is also predicted to continue tightening the driver market in the near term. The for-hire trucking industry's struggles are a result of a convergence of economic, labor, and policy factors, including tariff-driven cost pressures and a constrained driver labor pool.
