Title: The Unwavering Success of 'Buy' Signals in Software Stock Market
Title: The Unwavering Success of 'Buy' Signals in Software Stock Market
Oracle's software juggernaut, ORCL, has seen a 57.4% year-over-year surge, but it suffered a 17.7% drop from its December 9 record high of $198.30. This slump led the stock out of its post-earnings bull gap channel, established in September, during the beginning of 2025. However, the good news lies in its current testing of a traditionally bullish trendline – its 126-day moving average.
Embrace the Dip
This trendline is a key indicator with historical significance. Oracle stock has touched this trendline thrice in the past three years, according to Rocky White, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst. When this happens, ORCL has a remarkable tendency to bounce back, yielding a 6.2% return within a month, with a flawless 100% success rate. If this trend persists, it'll drive the stock prices above $173, reinforcing its bullish uptrend, which took root in September.
Options to Consider
The short-term options market has recently been bearish, as indicated by Oracle's high put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.01. This ratio falls into the 86th percentile of its annual range. If bearish bets unwind, the subsequent bullish impact could fuel additional rally.
Oracle’s Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) stands at 26%, which falls in the 15th percentile of its annual range. This implies low volatility expectations from options traders. On top of this, ORCL's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 93 highlights that it has surpassed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year, potentially boosting premium-seeking opportunities.
In conclusion, Oracle stock's recent pullback has placed it at a historically bullish trendline, which could indicate a bounce-back trend. Additionally, the short-term options market seems ripe for potential gains, making it an exciting time to speculate on Oracle's price movements in the near future.
The historical trend suggests that when Oracle's stock touches its 126-day moving average, as it has three times in the past three years, it tends to bounce back, leading to a 6.2% return within a month. This could potentially drive the stock prices above $173, further reinforcing its bullish uptrend.
The short-term options market for Oracle has been bearish, as indicated by its high put/call open interest ratio and low volatility expectations. If bearish bets start unwinding, this could fuel a bullish impact and potentially contribute to an additional rally.