The Houston Rockets shouldn't hastily engage in a major trade deal.
The Houston Rockets shouldn't hastily engage in a major trade deal.
The Houston Rockets have been one of the NBA's most surprising teams in the first half of the 2024-25 season. They started the year with an expected win total in the low 40s, but they found themselves in second place in the Western Conference with a 20-9 record by Christmas.
At least one high-profile player from another team has taken notice. Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler is reportedly considering a trade to Houston if he and the Heat can't agree on an extension by the NBA trade deadline on February 6th, according to ESPN's Shams Charania. Among Butler's preferred destinations, Houston seems to have the easiest path to acquiring him.
However, it seems that the Rockets' interest in Butler is not reciprocated. General manager Rafael Stone told Justin Termine of SiriusXM NBA Radio that the Rockets have no intention of changing their roster and that he would be surprised if anything changed this season. Marc Stein of The Stein Line has also reported throughout the season that the Rockets do not plan to make a major in-season trade and that they will prioritize age considerations when pursuing a marquee player to ensure they are on a similar timeline with the younger players on the roster.
So, while some might be tempted to accelerate the rebuild, patience seems to be the wiser course for now.
Rockets' Young Stars Shining Bright
The Rockets began mapping out their future in October by signing Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green to rookie-scale extensions. Sengun received a five-year, $185 million deal, which projects to be nearly $40 million less than the maximum he could have received. Green signed a unique three-year, $106 million deal with a player option in the third year, making him the first player in NBA history to get a nine-figure contract on a 2+1 rookie-scale extension.
Sengun, who has earned the nickname "Baby Jokic" as one of the NBA's best-passing big men, is looking like one of Houston's foundational cornerstones moving forward. He's setting new career-highs in rebounds (10.4), assists (5.2) and blocks (1.0) per game this season, along with averaging 18.6 points on 48.1% shooting. The Rockets outscore their opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Green is still a bit of a wild card. He's averaging a team-high 19.1 points per game, but his shooting percentages have taken a dive - a career-worst 40.6% overall and 31.1% from beyond the arc. The Rockets outscore their opponents by 3.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but they outscore them by 14.1 points per 100 possessions with him off the court.
Meanwhile, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason have firmly established themselves as regulars off the bench this season. Lineups featuring both of them have a defensive rating of only 101.4 points per 100 possessions, better than the Oklahoma City Thunder's league-leading 102.9 defensive rating.
Jabari Smith Jr., the third overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft, is still working to find his place in the Rockets' hierarchy. His averages have remained relatively steady across his first three seasons, between 12-14 points and 7-8 rebounds per game, but he's attempted a career-low 9.6 shots per game this season. Reed Sheppard, the third overall pick from this past year's draft, is averaging just 11.9 minutes per game so far.
Big Decisions loom this Offseason
The Rockets have two major decisions to make this offseason - whether to exercise the $44.9 million team option on Fred VanVleet, and whether to sign Smith to an extension.
VanVleet told Jonathan Faigen of the Houston Chronicle that he didn't come to Houston to be a rental. He also expressed hope to find a solution that was "somewhere in the middle of what's best for me and the team." This suggests that the Rockets will likely decline his team option and sign him to a longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.
Smith's situation is more complicated. If his play doesn't drastically improve over the remaining months of the season, he may not be deserving of a max salary. But his draft pedigree could complicate extension talks. He might choose to bet on himself in a contract year ahead of restricted free agency, or his agent could push for a trade to secure him a bigger opportunity elsewhere.
This situation gets even more complex with Eason's possibility of getting an extension this offseason. If the Rockets manage to retain VanVleet and, furthermore, sign Smith to an extension, keeping Eason might not be a viable financial choice in the long run, especially considering Thompson's extension on the horizon in the 2026 offseason.
This upcoming summer serves as the Rockets' turning point. Once they gain a better understanding of VanVleet, Smith, and Eason's future plans, they'll be in a stronger position to make a significant trade. Even if VanVleet decides to leave, Green and Brooks could potentially serve as financial trade pieces for acquiring a top-tier player. Moreover, the Rockets have an abundance of prospects and draft picks up their sleeve.
The Rockets are now navigating a challenging phase in their rebuilding process. Amassing talent is the initial step, but they must now determine which players align with their long-term aspirations. When that becomes more apparent, they'll be all set to execute a major trade that could solidify their standing as championship contenders for the foreseeable future.
(Stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass, or Basketball Reference. Salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.)
The discussions surrounding Jimmy Butler's potential move to the Houston Rockets have brought up the business aspect of sports, with many speculating about the financial implications if a trade indeed takes place. On the other hand, the Rockets' decision to sign Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green to rookie-scale extensions, demonstrates their commitment to investing in their young talent, showing that sports and business are inextricably linked in the world of professional basketball.