The Course of the Fatal Airline Crash Inquiry in South Korea
At 9 am local time, a passenger announced over a Korean messaging platform, KakaoTalk, that the plane was unable to land due to a bird (or birds) being caught in the wing, as reported widely in South Korean media, including CNN affiliate JTBC.
The other person asked, "Since when?"
The passenger responded, "Just now... Should I leave last words?" before communication was lost.
The plane's potential bird strike, lack of landing gear deployment, and collision with a concrete barrier are all potential factors contributing to the deadly accident, which is the worst in South Korea since 1997. However, the exact cause of the crash remains unknown several days after the incident. It may take months to determine the root cause. Often, the public's beliefs about the cause of a crash are far from the truth once an investigation concludes.
US authorities, such as the National Transportation Safety Board, Boeing, and the Federal Aviation Administration, are collaborating with South Korea's Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board to provide more information about the incident.
Despite the crash, the Boeing 737-800 has an impressive safety record, unlike its successor 737 Max model that has experienced numerous issues. Boeing data from 1959 to 2023 shows that the 737-800 has only been involved in 10 fatal accidents that resulted in the irreparable damage of aircraft, making it one of the safest planes in the industry.
South Korea also boasts an exceptional safety record, according to Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation. He explained that all South Korean airlines have safety management systems in place and have performed well in International Civil Aviation Organization audits.
Shahidi described the accident as "very, very sad" with the loss of life. He stated that it's a complex accident that involves numerous factors that the investigators will examine to understand the confluence of those factors that led to the disaster.
Prior to the emergency landing, the pilot reported an emergency declaration and go-around due to a bird strike, according to Kang Jung-hyun, a senior official at the South Korean Transport Ministry. The control tower had warned the pilot about birds in the vicinity before the reported strike.
The pilot declared "mayday, mayday, mayday" three times and used the terms "bird strike" and "go-around," the official stated.
Wildlife strikes with civilian and military aircraft have resulted in the death of 491 people and the destruction of over 350 aircraft from 1988 to 2023, according to a report from the FAA. In the United States, wildlife strikes have led to the death of 76 people and the destruction of 126 aircraft from 1988 to 2023.
The role of the bird strike in the crash remains uncertain.
Erika Armstrong, a pilot and former contract worker at Boeing, called the event "tragic" and full of speculation. She predicted that more concrete information would be available after investigators review the black boxes from the crash site.
A bird strike could have caused an engine to fail, which might have resulted in the failure of the plane's hydraulics. However, she noted that bird strikes are not common, but they've become more frequent in recent years.
In 2023, 19,603 strikes were reported, an increase of 14% compared to the 17,205 strikes reported in 2022, according to the FAA.
Shahidi stated that if there was a bird strike, investigators would be examining whether it destroyed one or both engines, which would be critical.
"From the time that the crew declared 'May Day' emergency, it was only about five minutes before the aircraft landed and crashed, so there was little time in that for the pilots to do what they needed to do," Shahidi said.
However, Armstrong pointed out that even if her theory was true, it doesn't explain why the landing gear didn't deploy.
The back and front landing gear were not visible in the footage of the crash on Sunday, which was shown by multiple South Korean news outlets. Footage showed where the plane's belly slid at a high speed, hit an embankment, and erupted into flames.
Armstrong explained that you could manually drop the gear on a Boeing 737, but given the time elapsed between engine failure and landing, the pilots wouldn't have been able to work through a checklist to deploy the gear. She described it as a "workout" for pilots to manually drop the gear.
The 101 Boeing 737-800 jets operated by South Korean airlines will be inspected this week, according to South Korean officials.
Another source of controversy amongst aviation experts is the concrete embankment that the plane hit upon landing.
The catastrophe claimed the lives of 179 out of 181 passengers on board, leaving only two crew members miraculously unharmed, rescued from the wreckage. This was the most recent fatal air accident in South Korea, which happened back in 1997 when a Korean Air Lines Boeing 747 crashed in Guam's jungle, claiming 228 lives. Aviation analysts typically don't find structures like the one causing this latest incident so close to runways in most airports.
"This is nothing short of recklessness," remarked Shawn Pruchnicki, an assistant professor in Ohio State University's college of engineering. In his view, South Korean aviation authorities bear responsibility for the high death toll due to the unfortunate design.
Pruchnicki emphasized that the incident wouldn't have been as devastating if not for the dense concrete barrier. He testified at a US congressional hearing in April regarding Boeing's safety practices.
The Federal Aviation Administration refers to the space surrounding runways as "runway safety areas," usually 500 feet wide and spanning 1,000 feet beyond each runway edge.
Investigators will re-examine the barrier to establish compliance with international standards for runway construction norms, according to Shahidi.
"It's disquieting to construct a concrete barrier because it guarantees destruction and death for anyone in a plane that collides," Pruchnicki expressed.
The two flight attendants seated towards the back of the jet that survived were unlikely to have felt the impact of the barrier, according to Armstrong.
What's next?
American officials are waiting for the South Korean authorities to disclose additional details.
At least one US airliner, Southwest Airlines, is collaborating with investigators to gather more information: "We are partnering with the FAA and Boeing, and we will adopt any of their recommended measures as the investigation progresses," a Southwest spokesperson stated.
Allegations against Boeing may have started, considering its record of faulty issues throughout the previous year. Experts maintain that attaching blame to Boeing is premature until more facts are unveiled, although no evidence exists yet indicating the aircraft's manufacturing was responsible for the crash.
Armstrong acknowledged it might be unfavorable to pin the blame on the pilot, but the cause is often the crew's fault.
"The spotlight will always shine on the pilot training," Armstrong remarked. "We're striving to swiftly train pilots, venturing as efficiently as possible, but until we hear from the pilots and the cockpit's occupants about the circumstances, we can only direct scrutiny where it's required."
The International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations shared a statement, highlighting their interest and cooperation in the crash investigation with their local member association, ALPA-K. The organization urged caution against speculation in the media and social media related to the incident.
In the course of investigations, the National Transportation Safety Board focuses on three main areas: the pilot, the environment, and the aircraft.
"When you arrive at an accident scene, you should capture everything that will no longer be there the next day," said Ed Malinowski, a retired senior air safety investigator for the NTSB and former airline pilot.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will allow for US agencies like the NTSB and FAA to aid South Korea in the investigation, according to Malinowski.
ICAO references 19 technical annexes to maintain uniformity in international civil aviation. "Annex 13" outlines the guidelines for accident investigation participation.
Due to "Annex 13," Boeing, the NTSB, and FAA have all declined to comment further on the matter. The regulation mandates issuing a preliminary accident investigation report within 30 days of the event and a final report as soon as possible or within a year of the event.
Despite the latest incident, the extent of lessons learned is still under evaluation. Passengers may be worried about air travel after such incidents, but seasoned experts reassure everyone that air travel remains safe.
"Let's allow the investigation to proceed now," Shahidi suggested.
CNN's Chris Isidore, Yoonjung Seo, Billy Stockwell contributed to this report.
The aircraft involved in the crash was a Boeing 737-800, which has an impressive safety record in the aviation industry. (from the text)
The business sector, including US authorities and companies like Boeing and Southwest Airlines, are collaborating to provide more information about the incident. (could be a sentence about a potential business investigation or response)
