Stock Predictions: Decrease anticipated for Nifty 50, Sensex, Nifty Bank, Nifty Midcap 150, and Nifty Smallcap 250 indexes prior to potential recovery
The Indian stock market is facing a cautious and volatile short-term and medium-term outlook, with key indices such as the Nifty 50, Sensex, and the Nifty Bank index experiencing consecutive weekly falls and sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling pressure.
In the short term, the Nifty 50 faces immediate resistance around 24,850–24,950, with support near 24,500–24,550. A drop below 24,500 could accelerate the downtrend toward 24,200 and possibly lower to the 24,000–23,800 range if bearish sentiment intensifies. The continued break below key moving averages such as the 50-day EMA confirms bearish momentum, amplified by weak breadth and global trade concerns. Nifty is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 24,400 to 25,000 in the near term.
The Sensex, which generally tracks closely with Nifty, is likely reflecting similar pressure from global and domestic factors, including FPI outflows and disappointing corporate earnings, maintaining a cautious medium-term outlook.
The Nifty Bank index shows consolidation with support near 55,000–55,200 and resistance around 56,300–56,500. Technical patterns indicate a pause in the decline, but volatility and stock-specific action remain high. A sustained fall below 55,000 could lead to further downside.
The Nifty Midcap 150 index, on the other hand, fell below its support at 21,400. However, the long-term bullish view for the Nifty Midcap 150 remains intact to breach the 22,000-22,100 resistance zone. A potential inverted head and shoulder bullish pattern may form on the Nifty Smallcap 250 chart, indicating a possible rise to 18,000 and potentially 21,000 over the long term.
The market outlook suggests a medium-term upward trend for the Nifty 50, with a bullish outlook towards 28,000-28,500. However, a break below 78,800, though less likely, may lead to an extended fall to 77,000 and even lower.
Key catalysts to monitor include the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming rate decision and developments in the India-US tariff dialogue, both of which could significantly influence market sentiment and direction over the medium term.
While short-term trading might see some consolidation near current support levels, medium-term risks persist due to weakened technical structure, persistent FPI selling, and macroeconomic uncertainties. A breach below 24,400–24,500 on Nifty could provoke sharper declines, whereas holding above these levels might allow gradual stabilization or limited recovery within a volatile range.
Notable performances during the week include the BSE FMCG index, which was the only index to close in green, with a gain of 2.41%. On the other hand, the BSE Realty index experienced the most significant fall, by 5.68%. The Nifty 50, Sensex, and the Nifty Bank index fell for five consecutive weeks, with the Nifty 50 closing at 24,565.35, down 1.09% for the week.
In summary, the Indian stock market is currently facing a challenging short-term and medium-term outlook, with key indices showing signs of weakness due to persistent FPI selling and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the long-term outlook remains bullish for some indices, such as the Nifty Midcap 150 and the Nifty Smallcap 250, due to potential bullish patterns and underlying strength. Investors are advised to monitor key catalysts and maintain a cautious approach in their trading strategies.
- The Indian stock market, with key indices like Nifty 50, Sensex, and Nifty Bank index, is currently witnessing a cautious and volatile short-term and medium-term outlook, primarily due to FPI selling pressure.
- Business and finance analysts are following the Nifty 50 closely, as it faces immediate resistance around 24,850–24,950, with support near 24,500–24,550, and a potential further downtrend toward 24,200 and below, if bearish sentiment intensifies.
- Nifty Midcap 150, despite falling below its support at 21,400, maintains a long-term bullish view, aiming to breach the 22,000-22,100 resistance zone.
- On the contrary, the Nifty Smallcap 250 chart indicates a potential inverted head and shoulder bullish pattern, suggesting a possible rise to 18,000 and potentially 21,000 over the long term.
- Subscribers to live market updates should be aware of key catalysts such as the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming rate decision and developments in the India-US tariff dialogue, as these events could significantly influence the market direction and sentiment over the medium term.
