Stock Market Heads Remain in Control on Tuesday
In the world of agricultural commodities, lean hog futures have been exhibiting a mixed trend, with some contracts showing gains and others experiencing declines. As of early August 2025, near-month contracts are slightly up around $109.125 per cwt, while later months like December 2025 have dipped to about $83.75 per cwt.
The CME Lean Hog Index has been hovering around $109 to $110 per cwt in early August, showing slight increases. Recently, lean hog futures hit a five-week high but faced some profit-taking.
Key factors shaping the lean hog futures market include:
- USDA data showing moderate fluctuations in hog slaughter and pork cutout prices. Pork cutout prices, in general, have been on the rise, despite some weakness in specific cuts like hams and picnics.
- Export sales reached a recent high of nearly 31,000 MT of pork for 2025 in late July, supporting demand.
- China’s efforts to reduce hog breeding herds by about 2% to manage oversupply may support global pork prices. However, this comes amid weakening pork consumption in China due to a slowing economy and price declines.
- USDA forecasts projecting 2025 hog prices to average about $69/cwt, up 8.1% from 2024. Pork production is slightly higher this year but expected to rise further in 2026, when prices are forecast to decline somewhat to $65/cwt.
On Tuesday morning, the USDA's national base hog price was reported at $110.98. The USDA's FOB plant pork cutout report from Tuesday AM was up 50 cents at $118.29 per cwt. The butt, ham, and belly primals were the only reported higher in the USDA's FOB plant pork cutout report.
As of August 25, Hogs are at $108.925, up $0.750. On Tuesday's midday, lean hog futures were up 75 cents to $1.87. Meanwhile, Census data converted to a carcass basis showed pork export shipments in June at 551.64 million lbs.
It's important to note that all information and data provided in the article are solely for informational purposes. The article was published by an individual named Austin Schroeder who did not have any positions in the securities mentioned in the article.
The CME Lean Hog Index, despite a recent five-week high, continues to show slight increases, indicating a positive trend in the finance sector related to lean hog futures. The USDA's forecast for 2025 hog prices at around $69/cwt suggests a stable financial outlook for the hog market, with potential fluctuations in light of global factors such as export sales and China's hog herd management.
