Orbit's Peril: Climate Change and the Satellite Apocalypse
Satellites in Low-Earth Orbit Suffer Damage due to Climate Change Impact
In the modern world of space exploration, the issue of greenhouse gas emissions has taken a sinister turn. These gases, wreaking havoc at ground level, are causing a catastrophe in the upper atmosphere, known as the thermosphere. This could lead to disorders in low-Earth orbit (LEO), potentially causing disastrous satellite collisions.
The researchers behind a groundbreaking study published in Nature Sustainability have highlighted this imminent threat. Earth's thermosphere expands far into LEO, making it crucial to account for greenhouse gas-induced changes in the upper atmosphere while planning future satellite operations.
Alarmingly, while greenhouse gases warm Earth's lower atmosphere, they cool the upper atmosphere, leading to global contraction. William Parker, the lead author and a doctoral candidate in aeronautics and astronautics at MIT, emphasized the gravity of the situation:
With more satellites launched in the past five years than in the previous 60, the new level of space activity, combined with climate change, makes orbital capacity a significant aspect of long-term space sustainability.
There are over 10,000 satellites drifting through LEO, a region of space up to 2,000km from Earth's surface. In their research, the scientists modeled various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over the next century to investigate the impact on atmospheric density and drag. By the end of the century, the number of satellites safely accommodated within the altitudes of 200 to 1,000 km could be reduced by 50 to 66 percent.
The concern over satellite constellations like Elon Musk's Starlink, which currently account for 60 percent of all active satellites in Earth orbit, is gross. The constellation has performed 100,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the past year to dodge other satellites and debris resulting from past collisions, explosions, and anti-satellite weapons tests.
We might already be heading towards a Kessler Syndrome, the point at which collisions generate debris faster than it can be naturally removed. Research suggests that certain orbital altitudes have surpassed this threshold. Even if no new satellites were launched into these altitude bands, debris levels would continue to rise as collisions outpace the atmospheric drag that would otherwise clear objects from orbit.
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has recently passed a rule requiring operators to deorbit a spacecraft as soon as practicable and no more than five years after the end of their mission. However, individual satellite operators and nations are rapidly expanding their operations, with little coordination, staking claims to different regions of space.
To prevent a Kessler meltdown, international agreements are required to manage space traffic effectively and ensure the efficient use of low-Earth orbit, a finite and increasingly congested resource. Without binding international regulations, the race to occupy orbital space will continue in an unsustainable and chaotic manner.
Global cooperation is essential to ensuring long-term stability and safety in low Earth orbit. Surprisingly, reducing greenhouse gas emissions isn't just good for the planet; it also helps ensure the long-term sustainability of space. The link between climate change and space debris is an unexpected connection, but it presents an opportunity to solve two pressing issues simultaneously.
In the context of climate change affecting low-Earth orbit (LEO), the thermosphere's contraction due to greenhouse gas-induced cooling could lead to a decrease in natural atmospheric drag, potentially intensifying satellite collisions and overpayments resulting from antisatellite activities.
With the imminent threat of more satellite breakups and overpayments in LEO due to climate change, it is crucial to account for greenhouse gas-induced changes in the upper atmosphere while planning future satellite operations to prevent a Kessler Syndrome and ensure long-term space sustainability.