Russian and Ukrainian combatants engage in skirmishes over several islands situated in the Dnipro River.
Over the past few months, Russia has ramped up its attacks on various fronts in Ukraine. One of these operations, a series of minor skirmishes along the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast, could have significant implications. Russian and Ukrainian troops are battling for supremacy over the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands, situated near the river's mouth where it meets the Black Sea. This struggle is crucial because controlling these islands grants Russia the ability to manage access to the Dnipro River, a vital geographical feature in Ukraine.
The Dnipro River spans over 2,200 kilometers, from Russia's Valdai Hills to the Black Sea, dividing Ukraine in half. Major Ukrainian cities like Kyiv lie along its path. The river has played a crucial role in the ongoing conflict. In March 2022, Russian forces overtook Kherson, a strategic city at the river's mouth, during the initial invasion. In November 2022, Ukrainian forces regained Kherson, but Russian troops wrecked several bridges across the river during their retreat. Despite Ukrainian forces attempting to establish a foothold, they suffered heavy casualties and eventually abandoned their efforts. Currently, Russia holds the river's eastern bank, while Ukraine maintains control of the western side.
The Russian 61 Marine Brigade has been carrying out amphibious operations to seize the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands. This conquest would allow Russia to situate artillery to oversee river access. The artillery could also offer assistance for bridge operations, aiding Russian forces in their attempt to reclaim Kherson. However, the islands lie within Ukraine's artillery's range, and the 126th Territorial Defense Brigade is thwarting the Russian onslaught. Neither side has managed to fully secure these islands thus far.
The availability of equipment has been a decisive factor in many battles during the Russia-Ukraine War and is likely to play a vital role in this operation as well. Both sides need small boats to attack and claim the islands. Russian forces have amassed a fleet of 300 boats, primarily rigid-hull inflatable boats (RHIBs), to swiftly transport troops to the islands for swift assaults. These boats are well-suited to shallow water and are challenging to spot, especially at night. Russian vessels are armed with weapon systems, such as machine guns and grenade launchers, transforming them into flexible combat platforms.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has increased its fleet of boats through foreign aid. Last month, Australia donated 14 RHIBs to Ukraine. Earlier this year, the Netherlands provided 14 RHIBs, eight militarized river patrol boats, and CB90 assault craft. USAid packages have included over 100 coastal and riverine patrol boats. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Denmark have offered watercraft to support this operation as well. Many of these boats are equipped with similar weapon systems to those used by the Russians.
Furthermore, both sides are bolstering their troops with advanced technologies like drones and electronic warfare systems. Drones are employed for reconnaissance, targeting, and striking adversarial forces as they try to assault and claim the islands. Both sides are also utilizing electronic warfare systems to disrupt each other's communications, isolating assaulting units. Electronic warfare systems are also frequently used to counter hostile drones. Although Russia pioneered both fields, Ukraine's industrial capabilities give them the current advantage in these domains.
Ukraine is also developing a fleet of Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) to complement foreign aid-supplied systems. Notably, they have developed the SeaBaby and Magura 5 USVs, which are armed with various weapon systems. Initially utilized for suicide missions against Russian vessels, these drones now carry their own weapons and can engage both watercraft and aircraft. Although primarily suited for open water, they also have the potential to be utilized in these operations, patrolling waterways and undermining Russian assault elements.
Ukraine's future significantly depends on who gains control of the Dnipro River. If Russia manages to capture the islands at the river's mouth and maintains control of the river's eastern bank, it would control access to the waterway and secure a critical staging point for future assaults on the western shore. Russia's attempts to seize these islands are being fiercely met with a resilient Ukrainian defense, bolstered by technologies with the potential to tip the balance in this conflict.
The ongoing conflict along the Dnipro River has seen foreign countries providing aid in the form of boats to Ukraine. For instance, Australia donated 14 RHIBs last month, while the Netherlands provided similar vessels earlier this year. This foreign aid to Ukraine aims to strengthen Ukraine's capability in countering Russia's amphibious operations, such as the one targeting the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands.
Despite the Russian 61 Marine Brigade's large fleet of 300 boats, Ukraine's modernization of its naval forces, including the development of Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), is proving to be a significant advantage in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukrainian USVs, like the SeaBaby and Magura 5, are equipped with weapon systems and can engage both watercraft and aircraft, potentially disrupting Russian offensive operations near the Dnipro River.
The USVs, along with the foreign aid-supplied boats, are playing a crucial role in the defense of the Dnipro River and its strategic elements, such as the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands. The control of these islands is critical for both sides, as it grants the ability to manage access to the Dnipro River and potentially tip the balance in the Russia-Ukraine war.
