Rapidly Expanding Regions in Victoria
Regional Victoria is experiencing a significant surge in population, with several shires seeing impressive growth over the past decade. The Surf Coast Shire, Bass Coast Shire, Baw Baw Shire, Mansfield Shire, and Mitchell Shire are leading the charge, attracting residents from cities and other regions.
The Surf Coast Shire, home to popular locations like RACV's Torquay Resort, Anglesea, Lorne, Winchelsea, and Deans Marsh, has seen the most rapid growth, with a population rise of 45.70% between 2011 and 2021. This growth can be attributed to a combination of factors, including internal migration, affordability, and changing interest rates.
City residents are relocating to regional areas like the Surf Coast Shire for affordability and lifestyle reasons. Greater Geelong, for instance, is now attracting significant inflows, reflecting a broader trend of people leaving metropolitan Melbourne for regional centers seeking more affordable housing and a change of pace.
House prices in regional areas like the Surf Coast Shire remain lower relative to the metro market, even as some inland regions experience strong price growth. This affordability, coupled with limited housing supply and infrastructure constraints, means demand often outpaces the available homes and services, further pushing prices and catalyzing growth in new and expanding localities.
The Bass Coast Shire, which includes RACV's Inverloch Resort, Wonthaggi, Cape Woolamai, and the popular Phillip Island, has experienced a population increase of 37.74% over a 10-year period. By 2036, the estimated population of the Bass Coast Shire will grow to roughly 48,000.
Nature lovers are drawn to the Baw Baw Shire, located two hours north from RACV's Healesville Resort. With opportunities for snow activities, fishing, hiking, and cycling, as well as a growing agricultural industry and more affordable living in the regions, the Baw Baw Shire has grown 34.44% over the past 10 years.
The Baw Baw Shire covers over 4,000 square kilometres including Warragul, Drouin, Jacob Creek, and part of the Great Dividing Range. The shire is developing in areas of housing, roads, events, facilities, and healthcare for its ever-growing community.
The Mansfield Shire, known for its nature experiences, from horse riding to bush walking, mountain biking, skiing, and hiking, as well as famed wineries, local produce, and a burgeoning arts scene, has grown at a rate of two percent each year since 2001. The shire has strategies for growth including new housing, extra health and commercial services, schooling, and employment opportunities.
The Mitchell Shire, which includes towns such as Kilmore, Puckapunyal, Seymour, and Wallan, has seen significant growth in the last 10 years, with a population increase of 42.80% from 34,637 to 49,460 residents. The suburb of Beveridge in the Mitchell Shire is projected to reach almost 80,000 by 2041.
The population of regional Victoria has increased by 15% from the Census prior, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data released in 2022, with nearly 1.6 million people now calling regional Victoria home. Over the same period, New South Wales' regional areas have grown by 8.6% and South Australia's regional population grew by 6.7%.
By 2051, the population of Victoria is projected to grow to 8.7 million, with 2.3 million people expected to live in regional local government areas (LGAs). This growth is driven by a combination of city residents relocating outward for affordability and lifestyle reasons, strong regional housing demand driven by limited supply, and supportive investment in infrastructure and services to accommodate this influx.
New housing projects are being developed in the Bass Coast Shire to accommodate more affordable housing, local employment, amenities, and the beachside lifestyle. The Mitchell Shire is establishing gentrification plans including health and educational facilities, parks, sporting facilities, and stadiums.
As regional Victoria continues to grow, it's clear that these areas offer an attractive alternative to city living for many Australians. With their affordability, natural beauty, and growing amenities, it's no wonder that these shires are seeing such rapid population growth.
- The surge in population in Regional Victoria has led to increased interest in investing in the real-estate sector, particularly in shires like Surf Coast Shire, Bass Coast Shire, Baw Baw Shire, Mansfield Shire, and Mitchell Shire, due to their growing housing market.
- Politics and general news outlets have been discussing the impact of migration on regional areas like the Surf Coast Shire, with city residents moving for affordability and a change of pace, causing a shift in the housing market and population trends.
- The growing population and housing market in regional Victoria, such as in shires like Bass Coast Shire, Baw Baw Shire, and Mitchell Shire, are influencing the overall finance and economic landscape of the state, as the government and private investors allocate resources for infrastructure development and services to accommodate the influx of residents.
