Rapid growth in electricity consumption, coupled with plant retirements, may lead to a massive 100-fold increase in power outages by 2030, according to the Department of Energy.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has released a report forecasting a potential 100-fold increase in blackouts by 2030, sparking controversy and concerns about its accuracy and assumptions.
The report, which was mandated by President Donald Trump's April executive order, warns that retiring about 104 GW of fossil fuel capacity by 2030, while adding 209 GW of new capacity mostly from renewables, could cause blackout hours to rise dramatically—from single digits today to over 800 hours per year. However, critics argue that the report overestimates power demand growth driven by technologies like AI, while underestimating planned additions of reliable resources and advances in grid management technologies.
Clean energy advocates and analysts contend that the DOE report overemphasizes the risks of retiring coal and fossil fuel plants and underplays the reliability potential of renewable energy and new technologies. They argue that the report's modeling relies on static assumptions about renewables’ intermittency and does not fully incorporate innovations in storage, grid flexibility, and demand response that could mitigate risks.
Jennifer Danis, federal energy policy director at the Institute for Policy Integrity, states that the DOE's analysis does not support President Trump's strategy of using emergency declarations to stop power plants from retiring. Christine Powell, deputy managing attorney for Earthjustice’s clean energy program, believes determining reserve margin and critical resources is a complex decision with severe health and economic consequences, and Congress entrusted the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to oversee this process.
Critics, such as the American Electric Utility's (AEU) Marquis, doubt the agency's methodology, claiming it exaggerates blackout risks and undervalues contributions from wind, solar, and battery storage. The Sierra Club's Senior Attorney, Greg Wannier, believes the report is an attempt to push the false narrative that the country's energy future depends on decades-old coal- and gas-plants, rather than clean renewables.
Earthjustice and other groups have asked for a rehearing and may challenge the DOE's emergency order in court. An update to the story includes comments from America's Power, which represents the coal sector. The report includes a methodology that DOE will use to identify which generation resources within a region are critical to system reliability. The DOE's outage risk estimates were developed using 12 different years of historical weather data.
The report estimates an additional 100 GW of new peak capacity is needed by 2030, of which, 50 GW is attributable to data centers. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the states are already equipped to meet projected resource needs, according to Wannier. Despite the controversy, the DOE report includes a uniform methodology to identify regions at risk of power outages and guide federal reliability interventions.
The DOE report, which primarily focuses on energy, includes a forecast of a potential increase in blackouts by 2030, owing to high demand growth driven by AI technology and the retirement of fossil fuel capacity. However, critics in the industry and finance sector question the report's assumptions, suggesting it overestimates blackout risks and underplays the reliability potential of renewable energy.
