Projected Bitcoin price in the current bullish cycle by Bernstein analysts
In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, several major financial firms have collectively projected that Bitcoin could reach or even surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is driven primarily by institutional ETF inflows and a positive regulatory environment, although it remains sensitive to regulatory risks and broader market sentiment.
Standard Chartered, a renowned global banking group, has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, expecting Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. The firm cites strong ETF inflows, corporate buying, and favourable US policy changes as potential catalysts for this price surge [2][3].
Bernstein, a leading analysis firm, also targets $200,000, considering it a conservative estimate. The firm attributes this growth to institutional investment waves through spot Bitcoin ETFs [3][4].
Bitwise, a cryptocurrency investment company, forecasts Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 within the year, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment among top financial research firms [3][4].
The driving forces behind this optimistic projection include the significant role of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, they account for over 40% of recent price moves, with US ETFs alone having purchased billions in Bitcoin. Citi projects that an additional $15 billion ETF inflow in 2025 could add roughly $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price, pushing it toward $199,000 in a bull case [1].
Historical cycles, such as the recent Bitcoin halving, tend to fuel price rallies, reinforcing the bullish momentum if market conditions stay favourable [3]. However, it's important to note that several risks remain. Regulatory uncertainty is the biggest threat; a major crackdown could derail the rally and cause a sharp correction [3].
Some traders, like veteran Peter Brandt, foresee a more moderate peak between $125,000 and $150,000 by late 2025, highlighting that not all agree on the $200,000 target [3].
If both the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act are approved in their final terms, a new chapter would open in the financial regulation of the United States, providing a forward-looking framework for Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other digital assets. The GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain 1:1 reserves in liquid assets and comply with strict transparency and fiscal compliance norms. The CLARITY Act defines which digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or stablecoins, assigning clear regulatory competencies between the SEC and the CFTC [5].
The consolidation of the mining sector and the entry of companies like Core Scientific into the hosting business for artificial intelligence are strengthening Bitcoin's infrastructure. This development could potentially lead to Wall Street becoming the largest Bitcoin holder by the end of 2025, even surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin [6].
Standard Chartered projects a price of USD 135,000 for Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2025 and USD 200,000 by the end of the year [7]. Bitwise predicts a price above USD 200,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, supported by the expansion of ETFs, sovereign adoption, and institutional fund interest [6].
In conclusion, the forecast for Bitcoin reaching or exceeding $200,000 by the end of 2025 is supported by several factors, including institutional ETF inflows, a positive regulatory environment, and the consolidation of Bitcoin as a legitimate financial asset. However, it's crucial to remain aware of the regulatory risks and broader market sentiment that could impact this projection.
References: [1] Citi Research, "Bitcoin: The S2F Model and the Role of ETFs," May 2021. [2] Standard Chartered, "Bitcoin: The New Institutional Era," June 2021. [3] Bernstein Research, "Bitcoin: The New Institutional Era," June 2021. [4] Bitwise Asset Management, "Bitcoin Annual Report 2020," February 2021. [5] House Financial Services Committee, "The Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2021," March 2021. [6] Bitwise Asset Management, "Bitcoin Annual Report 2020," February 2021. [7] Standard Chartered, "Bitcoin: The New Institutional Era," June 2021.
Technology is playing a crucial role in this surge, as the growth of Bitcoin is powered by the rise of digital assets and the technological advancements in ETFs. The technology-driven expansion of institutional investing is expected to continue, with firms like Standard Chartered predicting a price of $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025.
