Prices have experienced another increase in Belarus
Belarus Inflation Rate Slows in 2024, but Projected to Rise in 2025
Belarus saw a slowdown in inflation rates in 2024, with the consumer price index increasing by 5.2% compared to the same period in 2023. This is a decrease from the 5.8% inflation rate in 2023, and the government's target of containing the growth of prices at a level not exceeding 6% was met.
In December 2024, consumer goods experienced a 2.4% increase compared to the previous month, while food prices remained relatively stable, increasing by 0.02%. Non-food products saw a 3% increase over the year, and services rose in price by 6.7% compared to December. However, food prices increased by 7.3% compared to December, and services increased by 0.7% over the month.
Compared to December, non-food products increased by 0.1% over the month, and prices in Belarus increased by 5.6%. Over the year, the cost of food products increased by 10.6%, and for January - December 2024, food prices increased by an additional 10.61% compared to the same period the previous year.
Looking ahead to 2025, the projected annual inflation rates for Belarus are as follows:
- For 2024, inflation is expected to be around 5.2%, slightly slowing from 5.8% in 2023, with the government targeting 5% or less for the year.
- For 2025, inflation is projected to accelerate to 7–9% by the end of the year, according to the National Bank and the government's latest macroeconomic forecast. This acceleration is attributed to loosening monetary policy, increased GDP growth, excessive domestic demand, and external volatility.
Despite some government forecasts aiming for inflation to slow to 5% in 2025, more recent analytical forecasts and the National Bank's monetary stance suggest inflation will be higher, in the 7–9% range. This indicates some divergence between official targets and projected outcomes.
Inflation in mid-2025 has continued at elevated levels, with core inflation reaching around 7.4–7.6% in June and July, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures. The National Bank and the government are tasked with containing the growth of prices at a level not exceeding 6% for 2024, but the focus for 2025 is on managing inflation within the projected 7–9% range.
In conclusion, Belarus aimed for inflation below or around 5% in 2024–2025, but recent analyses and central bank policies indicate inflation is likely to rise to between 7% and 9% in 2025.
- The government's goal in 2024 was to keep the inflation rate at a level not exceeding 6%, but the projected inflation rate for 2025 is 7-9%, according to recent analyses and central bank policies.
- For 2025, despite the government aiming for inflation to slow to 5%, more recent analytical forecasts and the National Bank's monetary stance suggest inflation will be higher, in the 7–9% range.
