Possible price target for TXN shares reaching $125?
Here's the deal: If you're holding onto Texas Instruments stock (NASDAQ: TXN) and it plunges by 30% or more in the coming months, what would you do? Well, buckle up, buttercup! This shit's happened before, and it might just happen again. As of 2025, TXN has slid about 4% year-to-date, but it managed a 6% gain over the past 12 months. While the broader semiconductor industry improved somewhat thanks to a surge in AI chip demand and a tiny PC market recovery, Texas Instruments ain't exactly thriving. Their automotive and industrial segments have faced some tough times, and a significant sell-off is happening in the market due to growing concerns about a U.S. recession thanks to Trump's tariffs on trade partners. Since TXN's stock performance is like a rollercoaster tied to the overall economy and industrial activity, you might see a severe drop if a slump occurs.
The skinny: Here's the lowdown on what might happen if a downturn happens: Back in 2020, TXN's stock took a dive of around 29.8%, and during the 2022 financial crisis, it dropped by about 22%. Overall, it's performed worse than the S&P 500 during these periods. And if you're thinking, "Could it fall as low as $125?"— well, it's tough to say for sure, but it ain't unheard of. If you're into growth with lower volatility, you might wanna check out the High-Quality portfolio, which has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 since its inception—and scored returns of over 91%!
Why's This Relevant Now?
Texas Instruments' performance hasn't exactly been a home run lately. In the automotive sector, customers have been tapering their inventory following pandemic-related supply chain issues. The industrial segment, which includes products like amplifiers, power management devices, microcontrollers, and specialized processors, is showing some weakness too. The communications equipment sector has also taken a hit due to a slowdown in 5G network deployment, especially in the U.S. Add to that fuego with Trump's inflammatory tariff policies, increased immigration restrictions, and persistent economic concerns about a U.S. recession, global trade tensions, and the war in Ukraine—it's a recipe for some intense uncertainty. To get the full picture on the general economic outlook, check out our analysis on the bigger picture. In a recent interview, Trump even hinted that new tariffs might trigger a recession, so things are looking... tense.
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How Resilient Is TXN Stock During A Downturn?
TXN stock hasn't exactly been a rock during the storms. It's had its ups and downs, performing slightly worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during several downturns. If you're worried about the effects of a market crash on TXN stock, check out our dashboard How Low Can Texas Instruments Stock Go In A Market Crash? to get a detailed analysis of its performance during and after previous market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
• TXN stock took a nasty plunge of 22.3% from a high of $191.01 on March 29, 2022, to $148.34 on October 16, 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500• The stock eventually bounced back to its pre-Crisis peak by May 14, 2024• Afterward, the stock reached a high of $220.29 on November 10, 2024, and is currently trading at around $180
Covid Pandemic (2020)
• TXN stock crashed 29.8% from a high of $133.13 on February 19, 2020, to $93.50 on March 16, 2020, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500• The stock recovered like a boss, returning to its pre-Crisis peak by July 17, 2020
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
• TXN stock nose-dived 62.4% from a high of $36.59 on October 9, 2007, to $13.77 on March 2, 2009—a bit worse than the S&P 500's decline of 56.8% during the same period• The stock bounced back and reached its pre-Crisis peak by May 2, 2013
- The fall of Texas Instruments (TXN) stock during the 2022 financial crisis was approximately 22%, which is relevant when considering its resilience during a downturn.
- In 2020, TXN's stock took a significant dive of around 29.8%, and even though it recovered, its performance during the Covid Pandemic was slightly worse than the S&P 500.
- For those interested in growth with lower volatility, alternative stocks might be preferable, as TXN's stock performance has proven to be relevant and unpredictable, with significant drops—such as the 62.4% decline during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008—being part of its history.
