Online Poker in Ontario Experiences a Downswing - Could International Shared Liquidity Provide a Resurgence?
Ontario's digital poker scene seems to be hitting a speed bump, with predictions pointing towards a potential reduction in revenue for 2025 unless things change drastically. Recent financials from iGaming Ontario (iGO) show that the half-dozen online poker rooms in the province earned approximately $16 million between October and December, a dip compared to the $17 million recorded during the same time frame the prior year.
The slide is evident in the figures, with a year-over-year decline observed in each of the three months. October experienced a slight dip of 2%, November fell by 4%, and December took the biggest hit with a 7% decrease. For the first time since Ontario's regulated online poker market launched, a quarter has posted a year-over-year decline.
This downward trend comes after a relatively steady, if modest, growth throughout the year, with online poker revenue for 2024 reaching $67.7 million—a slight increase from the $63 million recorded in 2023, but a far cry from the explosive growth seen in other gaming segments. In particular, the online casino sector reached an all-time high of $224.4 million in December 2024, a massive 35% increase over the same period the previous year.
In comparison, peer-to-peer poker remains a small portion of the market, accounting for just 2.1% of Ontario's total gaming revenue in December and 2.2% for all of 2024, a decrease from the 2.8% recorded in 2023.
A Lifeline for Ontario's Online Poker Market?
With little sign of new operators entering the space, 2025 could be a tough year for the province's online poker sector. Although iPoker has expressed interest in the past, the ring-fenced market makes expansion less appealing.
GGPoker/WSOP
One potential game-changer could be Ontario reuniting with international shared liquidity. This move could provide a much-needed boost to peer-to-peer poker revenue.
~ $8M - $9M
Since the province's gaming market went live in April 2022, operators offering online poker and daily fantasy sports (DFS) have been restricted to Ontario-only player pools. However, recent discussions suggest that the province might permit international liquidity for both verticals without violating Canada's federal Criminal Code.
The Ontario Court of Appeal has heard arguments on this matter, but a decision is still pending. Depending on the ruling, a favorable outcome could change the game for the province's online poker market, allowing operators like PokerStars, GGPoker, PartyPoker (part of the BetMGM Network), and 888poker to reconnect their Ontario player pools with their global networks. This would result in larger tournament prize pools, more active cash games throughout the day, and a moderate increase in revenue, helping to revitalize the market.
PokerStars
Alternatively, the court might maintain the requirement for a closed player pool while permitting shared liquidity across provincial borders. With Alberta online poker expected to launch this year, it could spark the beginning of a multi-provincial online poker network akin to the US's Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement (MSIGA). Quebec online poker could also beef up the size of Canada's online poker market.
~ $4.5M - $5M
Regardless of the final decision, it could unlock growth and attract additional investment in Ontario's online poker market.
Who's Leading Ontario's Online Poker Scene?
BetMGM
Ontario's online poker market is currently made up of six poker rooms spanning four distinct networks. GGPoker, PokerStars, 888poker, and BetMGM form the main networks, with the first three functioning as standalone brands. Conversely, BetMGM Ontario comprises BetMGM Poker, PartyPoker Ontario, and Bwin Poker, all sharing the same player pool.
~ $1.75M - $2M
Unlike many US regulators, Ontario's regulator does not provide a revenue breakdown by operator. However, using cash game traffic data, we can estimate market shares.
As of now, GGPoker Ontario leads the pack, commanding an estimated 52% market share. Compared to data tracked by independent monitor GameIntel and available on the Poker Industry PRO platform, the platform averages 365 concurrent cash game seats.
888poker
PokerStars Ontario ranks second with a 30% market share, with an average of 214 concurrent cash game seats. The BetMGM Ontario network, including PartyPoker and Bwin, holds third place with a combined 12% share and an average of 84 seats. 888poker Ontario trails behind with just 34 concurrent seats, representing 5% of the market.
~ $700K - $800K
Overall, the Ontario online poker market maintains an average of just under 700 concurrent cash game seats. Using these cash game figures, we can estimate the revenue each operator might have generated in Ontario during the last quarter of 2024.
With total online poker revenue reaching approximately $16 million during this period, GGPoker Ontario likely earned around $8 to $9 million ($2.67 to $3 million per month). PokerStars Ontario's share would amount to around $5 million ($1.67 million per month), while the BetMGM network likely brought in around $2 million. 888poker Ontario, the smallest operator, might have contributed roughly $800k. However, these estimates should be treated with caution, as they only consider cash game data. Tournament revenue plays a major role in overall earnings, which might differ from these estimates.
Total Earnings
Speculative Revenue Estimates for Selected Ontario Poker Operators:
$16M
| Network | Estimated Last Quarter Earnings (CAD) || --- | --- || GGPoker/WSOP | ~ $8M - $9M || PokerStars | ~ $4.5M - $5M || BetMGM | ~ $1.75M - $2M || 888poker | ~ $700K - $800K || Total Earnings | $16M |
- The downward trend in Ontario's digital poker market is concerning, with a potential reduction in revenue for 2025 unless changes are made.
- In contrast to the online poker sector, the online casino industry in Ontario reached an all-time high of $224.4 million in December 2024, a significant increase over the previous year.
- With little sign of new operators entering the space, Ontario's online poker market may face challenges in 2025, unless there is a potential game-changer such as the reuniting of the province with international shared liquidity.
- International shared liquidity could provide a much-needed boost to the peer-to-peer poker revenue in Ontario, increasing the size of tournament prize pools and active cash games throughout the day.
- The Ontario Court of Appeal is currently considering arguments on whether to permit international liquidity for online poker and daily fantasy sports, which could have a significant impact on the province's online poker market.
- GGPoker Ontario is currently leading the pack in Ontario's online poker market, with an estimated 52% market share and approximately $8 to $9 million in revenue during the last quarter of 2024.
