Oil-producing countries within the OPEC+ alliance are readying themselves to substantially boost their oil output production
In a move aimed at normalising global oil supply, the OPEC+ alliance has agreed to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025 [1][2][5]. This marks the sixth consecutive month of output increases as the group gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts made during the pandemic.
The production increase involves eight OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman [2]. The initial voluntary cuts, agreed upon in November 2023 and originally set to phase out by September 2026, are now ending ahead of schedule due to the continued gradual supply restoration.
As the global economy recovers, the increased supply from OPEC+ comes at a time of steady global economic outlook and relatively low oil inventories [1][2]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts global liquid fuels production to rise by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 overall, led mostly by non-OPEC+ producers such as the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [3]. This supply increase is expected to meet growing demand, especially in non-OECD countries like India and China, where oil consumption is anticipated to grow significantly through 2026 [3].
The current Brent crude price hovering near $70 per barrel may reflect offsetting factors, such as geopolitical risks (e.g., potential U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports) and rising crude inventories in China [2]. Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent oil price forecast despite the production increase, indicating that price impacts could be moderated by other market dynamics [4].
The OPEC+ alliance remains ready to pause or reverse output increases if market conditions deteriorate, with the next policy meeting scheduled for September 7, 2025 [1][2]. The group still has two volumes of cuts left: around 1.65 million bpd for the eight OPEC+ members and 2 million bpd for all members.
The meeting takes place amid US demands for India to stop importing Russian oil [6]. Discussions on volumes are ongoing within OPEC+, and the increase could be less than 548,000 bpd [7]. Analysts suggest that the current Brent crude price may reflect offsetting factors, such as geopolitical risks and rising crude inventories in China [2].
In conclusion, the current status is that OPEC+ is steadily raising production by about half a million barrels per day monthly to normalise supply, which could help stabilise or reduce oil and gasoline prices provided demand does not surge unexpectedly or geopolitical tensions worsen. However, prices remain influenced by broader factors including geopolitical risks and inventory levels in major economies [1][2][3][4]. The alliance remains ready to pause or reverse output increases if market conditions deteriorate.
References: [1] Reuters (2025). OPEC+ to raise oil output by 547,000 barrels per day in September - sources. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-to-raise-oil-output-by-547000-barrels-per-day-in-september-sources-2025-08-01/
[2] CNBC (2025). OPEC+ to boost output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, sources say. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/opec-to-boost-output-by-547000-barrels-per-day-in-september-sources-say.html
[3] U.S. Energy Information Administration (2025). International Energy Outlook 2025. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
[4] Goldman Sachs (2025). Global Oil Outlook 2025. Retrieved from https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/global-oil-outlook-2025/
[5] Bloomberg (2025). OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output by 547,000 Barrels a Day in September, People Say. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/opec-to-boost-oil-output-by-547-000-barrels-a-day-in-september-people-say
[6] Reuters (2025). U.S. presses India to halt Russian oil imports amid Ukraine war. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-presses-india-halt-russian-oil-imports-amid-ukraine-war-2025-08-02/
[7] S&P Global Platts (2025). OPEC+ output increase could be less than 548,000 bpd, sources say. Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/11412428-opec-output-increase-could-be-less-than-548000-bpd-sources-say
- The production increase by OPEC+ involves key players in the energy sector, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, who are major contributors to the finance industry through oil-and-gas exports.
- The decision by OPEC+ to increase oil production by half a million barrels per day could significantly impact the global finance market, as it may lead to stabilized or reduced oil and gasoline prices, thereby potentially affecting the broader economy.
