Official Misleads Citizens Regarding Economic Condition

Official Misleads Citizens Regarding Economic Condition

The Lowdown on the Nation's Economic Woes

Amidst the whirlwind of political debates, the economy invariably emerges as a top priority for the Average Joe. It may seem puzzling to some that this concern persists, given the low unemployment rates and decreasing inflation rates reported officially, suggesting the Federal Reserve has managed a "soft landing" by curbing inflation without tipping the economy into recession. But the devil speaks in whispers, and the truth about the economy is often veiled by the government's economic statistics.

Enter "Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years," a research paper authored by Dr. E.J. Antoni of the Heritage Foundation and Dr. Peter St. Onge of the Mises Institute. Their work uncovers the unvarnished reality behind the glossy façade of the country's economic performance.

Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge employ a more accurate metric for inflation than the government to reveal the economy's true shape. According to their calculations, the U.S. economy has been experiencing a recession since 2022, with a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2.5 percent, contrasted with the government's figures suggesting a 13.7 percent increase from 2019 through the first half of 2024.

The federal government also reports a surge of 12.9 percent in Americans' disposable income during the same period. However, when the systemically more accurate method of calculating price inflation is applied, it paints a starkly different picture, indicating a 2.3 percent decrease in disposable income. It's worth mentioning that the government has long been accused of doctoring statistics to portray a rosier economy, with John Williams's ShadowStats being a consistent critic.

These official economic distortions have the potential to mislead the general public, policymakers, the president, and even the Federal Reserve, shrouding the actual state of the economy. The Audit the Fed bill's enactment would help shed light on the data the central bank relies on for decision-making.

The loss of the U.S. dollar's global reserve currency status, however, could trigger an economic crisis. An increasing number of nations are seeking currency alternatives, partly due to resentment toward the U.S. government's exploitation of the dollar's global reserve status to enforce its demands on other countries. Saudi Arabia's move to halt the exclusive use of dollars in its oil trade is a prime example.

In the event of the dollar losing its coveted status, Americans would grapple with a severe economic crisis, possibly leading to the downfall of the welfare-warfare state and the fiat currency system that sustains it. The fear that grips minds during such tumultuous times may result in a clamor for authoritarian governance in exchange for a false sense of security and the restriction of liberties. However, the crisis might also precipitate a renaissance of respect for the principles of liberty, minimal government, free markets, and peaceful foreign policy.

Informed individuals have a responsibility to share the truth with their fellow citizens, highlighting the benefits of upholding liberties and fostering a prosperous future for all.

Sources:

1. https://ronpaulinstitute.org/government-gaslights-people-about-the-economy/
2. https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2021/11/gdp-preliminary-advance-estimates-3rd-qtr-2024-bea-news-release-2024.pdf
3. https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesalt2faxt1.txt
4. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fedfundsrate.htm

Image: Not Provided

Original Article: https://www.thelibertybeacon.com/government-gaslights-people-about-the-economy/

Enrichment Data:The causes behind the difference between official economic figures and the findings in "Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years" can arise due to several factors:

1. Understanding the nature and definition of a recession:
2. Government Figures: According to traditional definitions, a recession typically refers to a decline in real GDP for two or more consecutive quarters, but recent data suggests a decline in real GDP from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which may not meet this definition yet.
3. Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge's Analysis: Their study could use different metrics or definitions, focusing on income and output over a longer period to uncover a longer-term economic downturn that traditional GDP measures might overlook.
4. Data sources and interpretations:
5. Government Data: Government figures may be based on comprehensive, though sometimes lagged data and might not capture all subtleties of economic activity. For instance, real GDP decreased by 0.5% annualized from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, while nominal GDP increased.
6. Alternative Metrics: Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge might rely on alternative data sets or methodologies that emphasize certain aspects of economic performance, such as personal income or output, which could highlight a prolonged decline.
7. Economic indicators and trends:
8. Inflation and Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's policies and inflation rates can significantly impact economic assessments, with recent inflation decreasing from its peak while the Fed adjusts interest rates to manage economic growth and inflation.
9. Labor Market: The labor market's performance, including job gains and wage growth, can also be crucial. Job gains have slowed, and wage growth is moderating.

These discrepancies come with significant implications:

• Policy Implications: If Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge's analysis is accurate, it could suggest the need for more aggressive stimulus or policy changes to address a perceived long-term economic downturn.
• Public Perception: Divergent interpretations may affect public trust in the economy and policymakers' decisions, potentially leading to differing investor and consumer behaviors.
• Economic Outlook: Depending on the accuracy of the figures, projections for future economic growth or recession risk might vary significantly, impacting business and investment strategies.

1. In light of the economic concerns among the general public, the research paper "Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years" sheds light on the discrepancies between official economic figures and real-world economic conditions.
2. Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge's study highlights the importance of understanding the true state of the economy, as their findings challenge the rosy picture painted by government statistics, suggesting that the U.S. economy has experienced a recession since 2022, contrary to the government's reports.

Read also: