Lawsuit Over XRP: Legal Prospects After Torres' Denial, According to Attorney's Estimation of Completion Time
In a recent analysis, crypto attorney Fred Rispoli has predicted that the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit could reach a settlement as early as July or August 2025. Rispoli, a prominent legal voice in the XRP community and the founder of Hodl Law, has been closely following the legal proceedings and has outlined two main scenarios for how the lawsuit could unfold.
The first scenario, dubbed the Extended Litigation Scenario, suggests that if Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decide to restore the briefing schedule and pursue appeals, the case could drag on until late 2026 or early 2027. This path would mean a longer, more uncertain resolution period.
However, Rispoli believes the more likely outcome is a quiet settlement between Ripple and the SEC, involving a mutual withdrawal of appeals, which could lead to the case concluding much sooner. He expects a settlement figure around $50 million, providing Ripple with regulatory clarity and avoiding further litigation.
Rispoli's analysis stems from his broader frustration with US regulatory governance, particularly the SEC's institutional behavior that he argues remains unchanged, protecting its own regardless of the administration in charge or detriment to the public. He suggests that the SEC's lack of response to Ripple's request for testimony may be due to a reluctance to appear incompetent or foolish.
The denial of the joint motion for an indicative ruling by Judge Analisa Torres was a procedural blow, but it might prove to be the final flashpoint in the case. Rispoli interprets it less as a reflection on the merits of the case and more as an indication of judicial frustration with the prolonged litigation and possibly political motivations. He notes the judge may be "pissed" about the time consumed by the four-plus years of the lawsuit and suggests the denial signals the court's impatience rather than legal obstacles.
It's important to note that the court’s injunction against Ripple doesn't affect the XRP secondary market or future ETF approvals unless the SEC chooses to enforce it, which appears unlikely under the current regulatory leadership.
Ripple recently launched a permissioned decentralized exchange (DEX) to bring institutions into XRP DeFi, signalling the company's readiness to move forward under mutually tolerable terms with the SEC. If Rispoli's forecast is correct, the end of the XRP lawsuit could be less than six weeks away.
In summary, Fred Rispoli sees the most probable outcome as a settlement with dropped appeals and the case wrapping up in mid to late 2025, while a more protracted resolution extending into 2026-2027 remains possible but less favored. The term "historic institutional sales" used by Stu Alderoty, General Counsel of Ripple, signals that the parties are likely to settle and move on. Rispoli has expressed interest in crypto as a means to opt out of the crumbling US regulatory system.
Businesses in the cryptocurrency sector, such as Ripple, are closely watching the outcome of the ongoing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit. The settlement figure, estimated to be around $50 million, could potentially provide Ripple with regulatory clarity and financial relief, helping them move forward in their business.
