Indonesian Stock Market Potentially Accumulating More Gains
The Indonesian stock market has displayed a positive trend in May and June 2025, with the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rising for two consecutive sessions, accumulating nearly 100 points or 1.3 percent.
In the last week of May, the JCI closed at 7,175.82, marking a significant 4.7% increase over the past month. Foreign investors were net buyers, purchasing approximately Rp 2 trillion in the regular market during this period. However, a slight correction occurred in the first week of June, with the JCI declining by 0.87% to close at 7,113 on June 5.
Despite this short-term correction, the overall outlook remained positive, driven by economic stability and supportive policies. By mid-June, analysts predicted continued positive momentum in the JCI, although trading days were limited due to holidays around Idul Adha.
The IDX Transportation and Logistics sector index (IDXTRANS) showed particularly strong momentum in the first half of 2025, rising 10.48% year-to-date by late June. This growth was supported by mobility recovery, extended holiday travel, and easing operational costs like lower oil prices.
Trading on July 1 and 2 showed some softness, with the JCI falling slightly to around 6,915.36 points, ending a brief two-day winning streak. The market experienced mixed sector performances, with losses in cement and financial stocks offsetting gains in others like energy and telecommunications.
An important development in the Indonesian stock market was the surge in domestic investor interest. The number of Indonesian stock investors surpassed 7 million in late May, indicating growing optimism in the capital markets.
Looking ahead, the JCI may open higher on Tuesday, following the positive lead from Wall Street. European markets were down, while U.S. bourses were up, and Asian markets are expected to follow the latter's lead. Ongoing optimism about trade deals is influencing the stock market.
Indonesia will release May trade data and June numbers for consumer prices later today. In April, the country had a trade surplus of $0.15 billion, with imports increasing by 21.84 percent and exports adding 5.76 percent.
However, global economic uncertainties persist, with the deadline for U.S. reciprocal tariffs looming. Geopolitical tensions and economic growth stability could pose challenges in the second half of the year for the IDXTRANS and the JCI.
In other news, crude oil prices closed lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $65.11 per barrel. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P 500 finished at 44,094.77 and 6,204.95, respectively, marking increases of 275.50 points and 31,88 points, respectively. The NASDAQ closed at 20,369.73, a gain of 96.28 points.
Canada has rescinded its digital services tax on American tech firms, which could have potential implications for the global tech market.
In conclusion, the Indonesian stock market in May and June 2025 reflected a positive trajectory with some short-term corrections, strong sectoral gains in transportation and logistics, sustained foreign investor interest, and expanding domestic participation amidst a cautiously optimistic economic environment. However, global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could pose challenges in the coming months.
Investors may consider the positive trend in the Indonesian stock market as a potential opportunity for investing, given the rising Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and predicted continued positive momentum. The IDX Transportation and Logistics sector index (IDXTRANS) has shown strong growth, driven by factors like mobility recovery and easing operational costs. However, global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could introduce challenges for both the IDXTRANS and the JCI in the second half of the year.
