Increase in Container Shipping in April: World Trade Bucks U.S. Customs Policy Trend
Global Container Traffic Shows Resilience Despite US-China Trade Tensions
Berlin - Despite escalating international trade disputes, container traffic showed a marginal increase in April, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Essen-based RWI research institute and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) on Wednesday. The corresponding barometer climbed to seasonally adjusted 137.3 points, compared to March's 136.2 points, indicating that global trade remains relatively stable in the face of mounting trade tensions.
The persistent trade conflict between the US and China, which resulted in substantial tariffs hikes on Chinese imports reaching up to 145 percent by mid-April, has affected container traffic albeit within typical ranges in US ports. However, further effects are anticipated in May, given the two-week time lag for containers originating from China to reach US West Coast ports.
Torsten Schmidt, RWI's chief economist, stated that the influence of the US's unpredictable trade policy on container traffic is currently limited, with short-term fluctuations challenging reflection in monthly data. He warned that if unpredictable solutions are not found soon, the volatile course will likely harm trade relations with the US. Recently, the US and China agreed on a 90-day truce in their trade war and plans to significantly reduce tariffs.
European ports have also witnessed a slight upsurge in container traffic. The North Range Index, an indicator reflecting the economic development in northern Europe and Germany, increased to 113.3 points in April from 112.2 points in March. The RWI index monitors container traffic in 90 international ports, representing around 64% of global container traffic. The current estimate is based on data from roughly 80% of the recorded traffic.
Additional data suggests that the trade war has led to a sharp increase in "blank sailings," with around 10% of all ship voyages canceled in April and May 2025 due to reduced demand. Moreover, the Asia to US West Coast trade lane experienced a 28% reduction in capacity, while the East Coast route faced a 42% decrease for certain weeks in May. The resurgence in trade following temporary tariff relief poses risks of port congestion and logistical bottlenecks, similar to those observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a burst of transpacific trade activity has been triggered by a 90-day tariff truce, with businesses rushing to capitalize on temporarily lowered tariffs. Container carriers anticipate increased bookings as companies aim to ship goods before the truce ends.
Future concerns include the planned implementation of phased port fees on Chinese-built or Chinese-owned vessels starting October 2025, as well as the likelihood of ongoing tensions and supply chain disruptions clouding the outlook for transpacific trade.
(Reporting by Moawis Ahmed, editing by Reinhard Becker.)
- Despite the impact of the US-China trade war on container traffic in US ports, an increase in global container traffic has been observed, with European ports also witnessing a slight upsurge.
- The current resilience displayed by global container traffic, despite US-China trade tensions, suggests that general news and business sectors might be affected differently by political events, such as trade disputes, with the finance industry showing some adaptability.
