Expanding Connections and Partnerships: Ambitious Plans for Small Cyprus

The Republic of Cyprus is carrying on with its military reinforcement, acquiring new equipment and eying a potential future membership in NATO.

In a November 2024 interview with the Associated Press, President Nikos Christodoulides expressed this ambition, discussing ways to optimally utilize these prospects with the U.S., appreciative of their positive feedback.

"To prevent our National Guard from missing out on these prospects, we're chatting with the U.S., and they've been great, about how best the Cyprus Republic can leverage these opportunities. Once everything is in order, we aim to become a member state of NATO," he shared with the news organization.

Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas reiterated the need for Cyprus to boost its defenses in a December 2024 interview with the AP.

"Given the ever-changing geostrategic dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean with its fluctuating geopolitical balances and competing interests, it's even more crucial for the island to enhance its defensive capabilities," he stated.

Simultaneously, Cyprus procured at least two Barak MX air defense missile batteries and numerous interceptor missiles from Israel at an undisclosed cost. The Israeli system will ultimately replace the Russian-made Tor-M2 air defenses currently deployed by the Cyprus National Guard, part of a larger endeavor to swap out older Russian weaponry acquired in the 1990s with Western equipment.

"This is a significant procurement. Yet, what truly matters is the improvement of our relations with Israel, which could bring numerous advantages to the Republic of Cyprus," George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne, explained to me.

President Christodoulides assumed office in early 2023 with a commitment to dedicate at least 2% of the island's GDP toward defense spending, in line with the suggested amount for NATO member states.

"The Republic of Cyprus is indeed beefing up its defense. It's a gradual process, though," Tzogopoulos stated.

Based on European Defense Agency data, Tzogopoulos observed that between 2018 and 2023, the total defense expenditure of the island increased to 518 million euros ($539 million) from 382 million ($397 million), while defense investments climbed to 130 million euros ($135 million) from 62.2 million ($64.75 million).

"In my opinion, the Republic of Cyprus is subtly participating in European defense initiatives and aiming to demonstrate its relative geopolitical significance as the EU takes minor steps in the defense sector," Tzogopoulos said.

"At the same time, stronger ties with the U.S. are persuading the country to modernize its military forces by increasing expenditure and investment," he added. "Of course, the regional context also plays a role in this direction."

Last summer, Hezbollah directly threatened the Republic of Cyprus, sparking concern in both Nicosia and Washington.

However, the chance of Cyprus joining NATO in the near future appears unlikely, considering that Turkey, a NATO member and the only nation recognizing the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, would almost certainly object.

"I don't see how the Republic of Cyprus could join NATO presently. Turkey should give its nod, and this will not occur without a resolution to the Cyprus Issue," Tzogopoulos indicated.

"While Washington supports safeguarding and bolstering Nicosia's Western orientation, this is taking place regardless of the NATO membership discussions. Additional military agreements, acquisitions, and training are likely within this context," Tzogopoulos noted.

"Nicosia is currently making a strategic evaluation with both benefits and drawbacks. The advantages arising from closer ties with the West by consistently showcasing its relevance to the U.S. and Israel, on the one hand. But serious risks are involved, such as dissatisfaction from Turkey and Russia and aligning their policies at the expense of Nicosia's interests," Tzogopoulos concluded.

"Historically, resolving the Cyprus Issue has been the primary objective for the Republic of Cyprus."

According to Tzogopoulos, Greece missed an opportunity right after Russia's full-scale February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to link Cyprus' potential NATO membership with Finland and Sweden's.

"Under extremely challenging circumstances, the results could have been better - at least limiting Turkey's influence," he suggested.

Unsurprisingly, Turkey has criticized Cyprus' recent defense acquisitions, warning they could ignite an arms race on the divided island.

"These purchases are not justified and could escalate the situation on the divided island," the Turkish Foreign Ministry stated.

The Turkish parliament speaker claimed that Cyprus will soon discover that the weapons it purchases will be ineffective.

"Cyprus will soon realize that the weapons they buy are futile," the Turkish parliament speaker claimed.

Despite these warnings, renewed tensions between Turkey and Cyprus are a strong possibility.

"Turkey is deeply concerned about the new foreign policy path of the Republic of Cyprus, which involves closer ties with the U.S. and Israel," Tzogopoulos said. "Nicosia's acquisition of Western weapons of various types is indicative of a rapid evolution following the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo."

The United States enforced an arms restriction on Cyprus in 1987, aiming to thwart an arms competition on the island. This led Cyprus to seek out Russian S-300s in the 1990s, and over time, it also procured French weaponry, including powerful Exocet anti-ship missiles. However, in 2020, the U.S. announced its intention to scrap this long-standing embargo, possibly opening up opportunities for American weapon sales to Cyprus.

With Turkey strengthening its naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean in accordance with its Maritime Dominance doctrine, it regards Cyprus's alignment with the West and military equipment upgrades as a threat.

According to Tzogopoulos, the Republic of Cyprus should consider various Turkish-American deals in the Eastern Mediterranean. These arrangements are expected to gain momentum during President Donald Trump's tenure.

In his pursuit of NATO membership, President Nikos Christodoulides discussed potential collaborations with Turkey, emphasizing the importance of resolving the Cyprus Issue before any progress can be made.
The acquisition of Barak MX air defense missile batteries and interceptor missiles from Israel by the Cypriot military was met with criticism from Turkey, with the Turkish Foreign Ministry stating that these purchases could escalate the situation on the divided island.
Addressing the Turkish parliament speaker's claim that the weapons Cyprus purchases will be ineffective, Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas highlighted the need for Cyprus to boost its defenses due to the fluctuating geostrategic dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean.