US Tariffs Dampen German Exporter Hopes in April 2021
Enterprise export forecasts hit a five-year low
In a sobering turn of events, German exporters’ spirits took a hit in April 2021, with their expectations plummeting to levels not seen since May 2020. According to a report by the Ifo Institute, the export expectations index sinks to -9.8 points from -2.3 points in March, marking the lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic struck global trade [Reuters].
The looming trade conflict with the US is recognized as the primary culprit, crushing the hopes for a recovery in the export industry. The unrelenting uncertainty surrounding the future of tariffs has only worsened the disheartening situation [Reuters].
Export prospects have significantly dimmed across various sectors. Car manufacturers have seen the prospect of recovery faded, anticipating a decrease in exports, while the chemical, machinery, and equipment sectors, as well as the furniture industry, brace for similar adversity. The metals sector's outlook remains grim, failing to improve even this month. Only beverage manufacturers expect substantial growth in foreign sales [Reuters].
On April 2, 2021, US President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on imports from the European Union, eventually partially suspending them. With the US being one of Germany's most significant trade partners, German exports to the US reached a staggering €161 billion last year [Reuters].
Besides the export-related sectors, other industries are also reeling under the weight of the trade war. “The wholesale trade and transport and logistics sectors are also enduring the brunt of the trade dispute,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of Ifo surveys. Companies are wrestling with increased uncertainty, particularly in the industrial sector, as they struggle to predict their own business development [Reuters].
While the enrichment data covers developments in April 2025, there is no direct information available about the impact of US tariffs on German export expectations in April 2021. However, during Trump’s administration between 2018 and 2021, US tariffs affected German exports, particularly in the steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors. With the April 2021 period overlapping with pandemic recovery efforts and subsequent Biden administration trade policy reviews, the direct attribution of changes in export expectations to tariffs is less apparent without specific data for that time frame [Enrichment Data].
The drop in the export expectations index in April 2021, to -9.8 points from -2.3 points in March, is attributed to the impact of US tariffs on German exporters. The looming trade conflict with the US has significantly dimmed export prospects across various sectors, such as car manufacturing, chemical, machinery, equipment, furniture, and metals. Furthermore, the wholesale trade and transport and logistics sectors are also affected by the trade dispute. During the Trump administration between 2018 and 2021, US tariffs had an effect on German exports, particularly in the steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors.
