Citi Research Analysts Publicize Bitcoin Optimistic Scenario Price Prediction, Claim One Key Factor Primarily Drives Bitcoin Gains After 2024, as Per Document.
In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, analysts at Citi have unveiled a new forecast model for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025. The model, which takes into account the integration of Bitcoin into the traditional macroeconomic picture, predicts a base-case price of $135,000 and a bullish scenario reaching up to $199,000, with a bearish scenario at $64,000 under weaker macroeconomic conditions [1][2][3].
The model is driven primarily by three key factors:
- Spot ETF demand: Citi estimates around $15 billion in new spot ETF inflows for 2025, which alone could add approximately $63,000 to Bitcoin's valuation. ETFs now hold a significant amount of BTC, about 7% of the total supply, symbolizing strong institutional appetite [1][2][3].
- User adoption and network effects: The base forecast assumes a 20% increase in user adoption measured by active wallet addresses and exchange inflows. The model highlights that Bitcoin's value correlates more directly with how many users hold and transact BTC, emphasizing network participation over traditional technical or stock-to-flow models [2][5].
- Macroeconomic conditions: The model factors in the impact of macroeconomic trends and risk asset behavior, where weaker performance in equities and gold could detract from Bitcoin's price, but the ETF and adoption drivers are expected to more than offset this drag in the base and bullish cases [1][2].
Citi's approach represents an evolution from older valuation frameworks by focusing on institutional capital flows (especially ETFs), user growth metrics, and macro trends as the main price drivers, rather than mining costs or purely speculative factors [1][5]. This comprehensive model integrates both microeconomic user activity and macroeconomic influences to produce these scenario-based forecasts.
Meanwhile, other developments in the crypto space include JPMorgan Chase reportedly considering allowing clients to borrow against their crypto assets, Ethereum eyes $6K as Pepescape Crypto Presale occurs, and the community-owned exchange Gigacex is unveiled. Additionally, Shinkai launches Version 1.0 with on-chain AI agents live with USDC and Coinbase x402, and VeraNet launches a decentralized AI ecosystem with community-controlled tools and services [4][6][7][8].
As the crypto market continues to evolve, these forecasts and developments underscore the potential for significant growth in the sector. However, it is important to note that there is significant uncertainty around these flows, with a forecast of $15 billion, and this forecast would slightly exceed last year's launch, but the recent acceleration in flows presents upside risk [9].
[1] CNBC [2] The Block [3] Business Insider [4] Coindesk [5] Forbes [6] Decrypt [7] Yahoo Finance [8] TechCrunch [9] Reuters
Altcoins, such as Ethereum, could also experience growth as a result of this forecast, given the potential for increased demand from institutional investors due to the rising popularity of Bitcoin ETFs. The integration of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency into traditional finance and macroeconomic factors is expected to have a significant impact on investing in both Bitcoin and altcoins.
