Central Bank of Turkey to Release Third Inflation Statement on August 14th
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is set to reveal its third inflation report for 2025 on Thursday, August 14. The key event will take place at the CBRT's Istanbul Financial Center, with Governor Fatih Karahan delivering an in-person briefing starting at 10:30 a.m. local time.
The event will be broadcast live in Turkish via the CBRT's official accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube. An English translation will be simultaneously available on the CBRT's official website.
The upcoming third report is expected to provide updated inflation forecasts and policy guidance reflecting recent changes in domestic prices, interest rates, and global economic conditions. Analysts expect further monetary easing, including additional interest rate cuts possibly totaling 800 basis points by end-2025.
The second inflation report of the year, released in May, maintained the year-end inflation forecast at 24% for 2025. However, the inflation rate in Turkey has been steadily declining, reaching 33.52% in July 2025, the lowest since November 2021, supporting a continued disinflation trend with 14 consecutive months of improvement. The CBRT resumed interest rate cuts in July, lowering its policy rate by 300 basis points to 43%.
Governor Karahan reaffirmed the bank's commitment to the disinflation process and emphasized that all available monetary policy tools would continue to be used to support price stability. Despite recent government-imposed price increases and automatic tax adjustments influencing inflation indicators, these are considered temporary, with the underlying inflation trend expected to continue declining.
However, cautious views remain due to risks posed by Turkish lira depreciation, which may elevate inflation risks toward the upper forecast band. The CBRT's reserves dropped $2.9B after a five-week streak of gains, adding to concerns about the lira's stability.
In summary, the third inflation report will likely emphasize ongoing disinflation, the commitment to price stability using all monetary tools, and updated forecasts that may guide further gradual interest rate cuts amid cautious optimism on inflation but vigilance regarding currency risks. The event promises to provide valuable insights into the Turkish economy's future direction.
Members of the press and economists planning to attend the event are required to notify the bank by 2 p.m. on Wednesday, August 13. The event will be streamed live for those unable to attend in person.
- The forthcoming inflation report in Turkey, which will be delivered by Governor Fatih Karahan at the CBRT's Istanbul Financial Center on August 14, is expected to present updated inflation forecasts and policy guidance with a continued focus on disinflation, price stability, and potential further monetary easing.
- Despite the expected monetary easing and continuous decline in inflation rate, cautious views remain among analysts due to the risks posed by Turkish lira depreciation, which may impact inflation indicators and elevate inflation risks towards the upper forecast band.
- The CBRT, under the leadership of Governor Karahan, has committed to using all available monetary policy tools to support the disinflation process and emphasized that an English translation of the third inflation report will be available on their official website for global audiences.
