Belarus set to experience an earlier economic influx compared to Russia, according to a financial analyst
In the first four months of 2025, Belarus has seen a startling increase in its negative trade balance, nearly doubling compared to the same period in 2024. This worrying trend has raised concerns among economists, particularly Vyacheslav Shiryaev, who believes that the Belarusian economy could be a harbinger of potential future problems for Russia.
Shiryaev, a Russian economist, posits that the Belarusian economy serves as a reflection of potential issues that may arise in Russia, given the interdependence of their economic systems. He suggests that the economic challenges facing Belarus, such as an increase in trade deficit and the anticipated devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, will likely occur in Russia with a lag of several months.
The Belarusian regime, under the leadership of President Lukashenko, is grappling with the prospect of economic reform or seeking financial aid from Moscow. The slowdown of the Russian economy is also contributing to the potential devaluation of the Belarusian ruble.
Lukashenko, however, may face a difficult choice. He could potentially agree to step down as president and be replaced with an acceptable successor for Europe. This move could help resolve the Belarusian economy's problems, which are expected to be resolved using the Russian budget, which already has a significant hole.
Moscow, meanwhile, is expected to maintain control over Belarus until the end. However, any financial support could come with political concessions, further complicating Lukashenko's decision.
The widening trade deficit in Belarus is a significant factor driving this potential devaluation. If the Belarusian ruble does undergo devaluation, it could have predictive consequences for the Russian economy. This devaluation is expected to result in a sharp reduction of living standards for the Belarusian population.
In the face of these economic difficulties, Belarus might have to navigate economic challenges without prior experience under Lukashenko's rule. The Belarusian regime may seek economic support from the West and work towards lifting sanctions.
For those interested in following the developments in Belarus, Charter97.org, a Belarusian human rights organisation, provides updates through various platforms, including Facebook, YouTube, X.com, VKontakte, OK.ru, Instagram, RSS, Telegram, and their multicurrency account. Shiryayev also shared his beliefs on the matter in an overview on his YouTube channel.
Shiryayev believes that the economic challenges facing Belarus, such as the widening trade deficit and anticipated devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, may serve as a reflection of potential issues in the Russian industry, finance, and business sectors, given the interdependence of their economic systems.
In the event of a devaluation, the consequences for the Belarusian economy, including a sharp reduction of living standards for the population, could have predictive consequences for the Russian finance industry and overall business landscape.
