Anticipated Electric Vehicle Count in Germany by 2030 to Reach 11 Million
The expected pace of electrical vehicle adoption in Germany is slower than anticipated by the ruling coalition, as per a recent assessment. By 2030, only approximately 11.2 million full-electric battery-powered vehicles are projected to be in use, falling short of the initial aim of 15 million set in the coalition agreement. Public skepticism towards electric vehicles is also contributing to this slow transition.
At present, there are around 50 million registered passenger vehicles in Germany, as per the Federal Motor Transport Authority. The SPD, Greens, and FDP had pledged to achieve a minimum of 15 million electric vehicles by 2030 in their coalition agreement, with a focus on establishing Germany as a leader in the electromobility market. Hybrid vehicles were excluded from this target. Globally, China currently leads the market in electric vehicle sales.
In late December 2023, the government unexpectedly halted subsidies for electric vehicles due to financial constraints, resulting in a significant drop in sales. Political figures from various parties are now pushing for the reinstatement of a purchase incentive. "Establishing a positive environment for the acceptance of electromobility requires stable policies, as companies need predictability in their planning," stated Harald Proff, head of the automotive division at Deloitte.
Approximately 1.6 million battery electric vehicles registered to date
The prediction of around 11 million battery electric vehicles by 2030 is derived from a statistical model that accounts for several factors influencing purchasing decisions, such as the evolution of electricity and gasoline prices, car insurance costs, and purchase incentives. As of October 1, approximately 1.6 million battery electric vehicles had been registered in Germany, according to data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority.
A survey conducted by Deloitte revealed that public sentiment towards electric vehicles remains divided: 40% of 1,000 respondents view the EU's proposed ban on new fossil fuel vehicle sales after 2035 favorably, while 36% consider it unfavorably. The remaining 24% remain neutral.
Nevertheless, Deloitte consultants expect electric vehicles to gain widespread acceptance internationally. "Companies would be wise to invest more in battery technology, lower vehicle prices, and bolster the acceptance of electric mobility," suggested Proff, addressing the automotive industry.
Despite the slower-than-expected adoption of electric mobility in Germany, the automotive industry is urged to invest more in battery technology and lower vehicle prices to increase acceptance worldwide. By 2030, the projected use of full-electric battery-powered vehicles in Germany will still surpass the current number of registered battery electric vehicles, indicating a move towards electric mobility, albeit at a slower pace than initially anticipated.
