Ai-92's price dropped post the issuance of the export ban
In the recent past, the prices of petroleum products in Russia have soared to unprecedented heights, with AI-95 petrol reaching an all-time high of 80,000 roubles per ton on August 8, 2025. This marked a 7.2% increase since the gasoline export ban was implemented in late July.
The ban on gasoline exports, initiated by the Russian government in an attempt to stabilize domestic supply, has ironically coincided with price spikes. Reduced refining volumes and logistical constraints, exacerbated by ongoing economic pressures, likely contribute to the tight domestic supply and price rises. Seaborne petrol exports have also been significantly reduced since May 2025.
Excise duty indexing and state fiscal policies have also played a role in these price increases. Compensation mechanisms like fuel damper payments to oil companies have been adjusted to respond to lower tax revenues. The Russian budget has sustained a substantial revenue loss, which affects the fuel market indirectly.
The EU's introduction of a floating price cap lowering the ceiling to $47.60 per barrel effective September 2025 has further pressured Russian oil earnings, increasing export complexities.
Other petroleum products, such as summer diesel and fuel oil, have likely also been affected by similar supply-demand imbalances and logistical challenges. The overall decline in oil and gas export revenues has constrained Russia's refining and distribution capacity, further impacting domestic fuel prices.
Despite these challenges, the Russian Ministry of Energy assesses the domestic market of petroleum products as stable, with a surplus balance. On July 29, the price of AI-92 gasoline decreased by 1.57%, while the prices of AI-95 petrol, summer diesel, and fuel oil also saw decreases.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of Energy did not mention any new regulations or policies related to the domestic market of petroleum products on July 24. The experts interviewed by RIA Novosti linked the price increase to logistical constraints, reduced refining volumes due to planned repairs, and the indexing of excise duties on gasoline and diesel fuel starting January 1, 2025.
The ban on overseas supplies for non-producers is only in effect until August 31. The Ministry of Energy did not mention any specific dates for the ban on gasoline exports for producers or non-producers beyond August 31 on July 24.
In summary, despite export restrictions aimed at stabilizing domestic markets, AI-95 petrol prices in Russia have hit record highs. Other fuel types like AI-92, summer diesel, and fuel oil are similarly affected through interconnected supply and fiscal dynamics.
- The ban on gasoline exports by the Russian government, aiming to stabilize domestic supply, appears to have inadvertently contributed to the rise in petroleum prices within the industry, impacting not only gasoline (AI-95) but also other products like AI-92, summer diesel, and fuel oil.
- The escalation in petroleum product prices, including finance-centric elements such as excise duty indexing and state fiscal policies, has had a ripple effect on the energy sector, as reduced refining volumes, logistical constraints, and supply-demand imbalances continue to exert pressure on domestic fuel prices and export revenues.
